Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Schüco Arena (Bielefeld)

Referee: Prigan F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Arminia Bielefeld		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.50	2.80	Watch
	2.30	3.60	2.95
	2.28	3.55	2.88	Watch
	2.37	3.75	3.02
	2.39	3.64	2.78	Watch
	2.25	3.75	3.00
	2.30	3.65	2.92	Watch
	2.32	3.60	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.17)	3.63 (3.63)	2.9 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arminia Bielefeld
41.2%

Draw
26.1%

St. Pauli
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

26%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

26.4%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	38.5%	15.4%

Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arminia: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kersken J. (G) 7. Koudossou H. 5. Bauer M. (C) 21. Russo S. 19. Grosser M. 17. Sicker A. 14. Momuluh M. 6. Mehlem M. 38. Worl M. 10. Rochelt J. 11. Grodowski J.	1. Voll B. (G) 4. Nemeth D. (C) 6. Mathisen M. 15. Ando T. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 8. Smith E. 23. Oppie L. 10. Hrgota B. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M.
Substitutes
27. Boakye B. 3. Felix J. 29. Handwerker T. 31. Jensen L. 9. Min D. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 8. Schreck S. 42. Wegener T. 30. Young I.	14. Ahlstrand E. 9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 16. Fujita J. 22. Klein S. 24. Metcalfe C. 33. Mitov D. (G) 7. Niang Y. 21. Ritzka L.
Coaches
Kirch O.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Rochelt J. ⚽, Kersken J. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Hara T. ⚽, Nemeth D. (A),
35', Mehlem M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kaars M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
46', Hrgota B. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
47', Ando T. 🟨,
51', 2 - 1, Grodowski J. ⚽,
56', Smith E. 🟨,
65', 2 - 2, Ceesay A. ⚽, Pyrka A. (A),
66', Rochelt J. ↓, Min D. ↑,
66', Momuluh M. ↓, Jensen L. ↑,
76', Hara T. ↓, Niang Y. ↑,
77', Mehlem M. ↓, Schreck S. ↑,
81', Koudossou H. ↓, Boakye B. ↑,
81', Worl M. ↓, Wegener T. ↑,
88', Pyrka A. 🟨,
88', Bauer M. 🟨,
89', Rasmussen M. ↓, Klein S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Arminia: Hagmann F. (Inactive) Richter D. (Knee Injury) Schneider L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Thordarson G. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arminia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.7:0.9).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

St. Pauli: 4% Arminia Bielefeld: 0.89%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	St. Pauli	6	1	4	1	8:8	0	7
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	10:12	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
29.08.26	Nürnberg - Arminia Bielefeld	4:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Arminia Bielefeld	3:2 penalties ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
16.08.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Energie Cottbus	3:0 ✺
08.08.26	Karlsruher - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Duisburg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLT
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
30.08.26	St. Pauli - Kaiserslautern	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
14.08.26	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	2:2 ✺
09.08.26	St. Pauli - Greuther Fürth	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	St. Pauli - Deportivo A Coruña	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
29.04.23	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1
22.10.22	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	2:0
Club Friendly
18.01.20	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	3:4
German 2 Bundesliga
21.12.19	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0
29.07.19	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	1:1
14.04.19	St. Pauli - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1
04.11.18	Arminia Bielefeld - St. Pauli	1:2

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