Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Arosa		Alondras

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.25	3.8
	1.89	3.22	4.05
	3.62	3.81	1.84	Watch
	1.82	3.18	4.24
	1.87	3.14	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.87)	3.32 ↓ (3.45)	3.59 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arosa
43.8%

Draw
29.2%

Alondras
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

26.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

25.5%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arosa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Alondras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arosa than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arosa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alondras than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Arosa - Alondras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
87', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 1.

Arosa is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alondras is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Arosa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arosa won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arosa won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Alondras	5	3	0	2	10:9	1	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arosa SC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
08.02.26	Lugo B - Arosa	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Arosa - Gran Peña	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Silva SD - Arosa	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Céltiga - Arosa	3:4 ✺
11.01.26	Arosa - Juventud Cambados	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWWT
- Alondras CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
08.02.26	Alondras - Atlético Arteixo	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Noia - Alondras	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Alondras - RC Villalbes	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Alondras - Barbadás	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Viveiro - Alondras	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
28.09.25	Alondras - Arosa	0:2
11.05.25	Arosa - Alondras	3:3
12.01.25	Alondras - Arosa	2:0
28.04.24	Arosa - Alondras	1:1
17.12.23	Alondras - Arosa	1:1
05.02.23	Alondras - Arosa	0:2
02.10.22	Arosa - Alondras	0:0

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