Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 5

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Arouca		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.8
	2.08	3.15	3.7	Watch
	2.06	3.37	3.98
	9.04	3.58	1.48	Watch
	2.12	3.23	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (1.89)	3.32 ↓ (3.42)	3.43 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
34.4%

Draw
33.3%

Casa Pia
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.5%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casa Pia's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Arouca - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valido J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 3. Fontan J. 4. Rocha M. 44. Dante A. 21. Fukui T. 89. Pedro Santos 19. Trezza A. 10. Gozalbez P. 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 74. Nhaga R. 42. Perez S. 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 21. Morais T.
Substitutes
78. Alex Pinto 17. Barbero I. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 58. Mantl N. (G) 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 8. Simao D. 22. van Ee E.	22. Azevedo D. (G) 27. Lima K. 19. Machado K. 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 13. Osundina K. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 9. Svensson M. 2. Tchamba D.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Cassiano ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
35', Morais T. 🟨,
44', Nhaga R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fukui T. ↓, Simao D. ↑,
46', Gozalbez P. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
56', Morais T. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
56', Nhaga R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
57', Benaissa-Yahia F. 🟨,
64', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
64', Djouahra N. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Sousa D. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
69', Cassiano 🟨,
70', Pedro Santos ↓, Puche ↑,
71', Nandin D. 🟨,
72', Benaissa-Yahia F. ↓, Machado K. ↑,
80', Simao D. 🟨,
84', Mohamed I. 🟨,
85', Cassiano ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
85', Perez S. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
90+10', Rocha Livramento D. 🟨,
90+11', Miguel Sousa 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.

Arouca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Nsona K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Oukili Y. (Injury) Severina X. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3 ✺
17.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	6:0 ✺
09.08.25	Arouca - AVS	3:1 ✺
17.05.25	Arouca - Boavista	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTLWW
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Casa Pia - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
16.05.25	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
04.05.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:0
20.12.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	3:1
18.02.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:0
17.09.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:1
25.02.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:0
04.09.22	Casa Pia - Arouca	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
09.05.21	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:1

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