Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
World	Onefootball


	Braga		Arouca

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.45	6.9	Watch
	1.44	4.65	8.07
	1.42	4.59	7.61	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.58	6.91	Watch
	1.37	4.9	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.4)	4.51 ↓ (5.14)	7.36 ↓ (8.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
66.2%

Draw
21%

Arouca
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

18.9%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.2%

17.9%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Braga - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Arouca (6.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 2. Gomez V. 6. Vitor Carvalho 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 5. Lelo L. 34. Tiknaz D. E. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 8. Moutinho J. 20. Dorgeles M. 39. Navarro F. 21. Horta R. (C)	30. Vinarcik J. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 25. Kuipers B. 21. Fukui T. 22. van Ee E. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
41. da Rocha Y. 9. El Ouazzani A. 29. Gorby 90. Luisinho 77. Martinez G. 53. Noro J. 15. Oliveira P. 12. Sa T. (G) 18. Victor P.	44. Dante A. 46. Flores M. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 89. Pedro Santos 5. Popovic B. 4. Rocha M. 2. Silva J. 19. Trezza A.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
55', Kuipers B. 🟨,
63', Lelo L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
63', Horta R. ↓, Victor P. ↑,
65', Gozalbez P. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
65', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Victor P. ⚽,
72', Martinez G. 🟨,
76', Moutinho J. ↓, Gorby ↑,
82', Martinez G. 🟨,
83', Barbero I. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Lee H. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
85', Fukui T. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
89', Navarro F. ↓, da Rocha Y. ↑,
90+1', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
90+6', Fontan J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Braga is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Braga: Barisic A. (Muscle Injury) Lagerbielke G. (Yellow Cards) Zalazar R. (Injury)

There will not play in Arouca: De Arruabarrena I. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Braga: Rodrigues D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Gozalbez P. (Injury) Nandin D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:12. (average 2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:9. (average 1.7:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
08.04.26	Braga - Betis	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.04.26	Moreirense - Braga	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Braga - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.03.26	Braga - Ferencvárosi	4:0 ✺
12.03.26	Ferencvárosi - Braga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWLWL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
06.04.26	Arouca - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	Moreirense - Arouca	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arouca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.12.25	Arouca - Braga	0:4
29.03.25	Braga - Arouca	2:1
03.11.24	Arouca - Braga	1:2
06.04.24	Braga - Arouca	0:3
12.11.23	Arouca - Braga	0:1
19.02.23	Braga - Arouca	2:0
28.08.22	Arouca - Braga	0:6

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