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Current Win Probability
Aserrí 39.8%
Draw 28.4%
Carmelita 31.8%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39%
26.7%
34.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.7%
27.8%
31.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aserrí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
Carmelita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aserrí than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmelita than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Aserrí - Carmelita Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
34', (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 0, ⚽,
71', 1 - 1, ⚽,
Preview
Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 5th and 4th in the Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aserrí won 2.
In recent outings, Aserrí has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Carmelita shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Carmelita could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Aserrí has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:8 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Aserrí against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:3 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).
Watch
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