The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Aserrí 33%
Draw 28.5%
Guadalupe 38.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46%
26%
28.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
46.5%
25.7%
27.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aserrí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aserrí's form might have worsened.
Guadalupe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guadalupe's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aserrí than the current prediction. (+13.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aserrí, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guadalupe than the current prediction. (-10.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guadalupe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Aserrí - Guadalupe Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
35', 1 - 0, ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, ⚽,
40', 1 - 2, ⚽,
42', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
77', 1 - 3, ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 3, ⚽,
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 8th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aserrí won 3.
Aserrí has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Guadalupe has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Aserrí could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Aserrí is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Aserrí has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:17 (averaging 1.3:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Aserrí against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:5 goals (averaging 1.2:1 per game).
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