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Current Win Probability
Astana 57.1%
Draw 22.6%
Yelimay Semey 20.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
51.1%
27.2%
21.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
54.7%
25.4%
20.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Astana's performance.
Yelimay Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yelimay Semey than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Astana - Yelimay Semey Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
74. Seysen M. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 3. Kalaica B. 5. Kazukolovas K. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 9. Islamkhan B. 7. Karaman D. 8. Basic I. 10. Tomasov M. (C) 81. Karimov R. 72. Basmanov S.
32. Konovalov I. (G) 26. Tanasijevic S. 15. Mittendorfer M. 4. Zhumakhanov A. 20. Ashirbek A. 23. Ilic H. 44. Tulubay A. 17. Bakhtiyarov A. 77. Placca F. (C) 11. Sviridov I. 89. China
Substitutes
47. Abrayev M. 20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 15. Beysebekov A. 29. Buric N. 93. Condric J. (G) 99. Karpikov D. (G) 6. Kasym A. 17. Marat D. 21. Merkel A. 45. Miladinovic I.
2. Adambayev A. 88. Baygaliev A. 5. Belancic M. 9. Murillo R. 7. Murtazaev R. 8. Omatay M. 18. Orazov R. 14. Palacio D. 10. Payruz Z. 1. Tsuprikov E. (G) 19. Zhaksylykov A.
Coaches
Babayan G.
Karpovich A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
29', Tulubay A. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Basic I. ⚽, Islamkhan B. (A),
42', Ashirbek A. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Basic I. ⚽, Tomasov M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sviridov I. ↓, Murillo R. ↑,
46', Basmanov S. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
49', 3 - 0, Tomasov M. ⚽, Karimov R. (A),
58', China ↓, Zhaksylykov A. ↑,
58', Placca F. ↓, Murtazaev R. ↑,
61', Bakhtiyarov A. ↓, Payruz Z. ↑,
66', Ilic H. 🟨,
67', 4 - 0, Karimov R. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Islamkhan B. ↓, Beysebekov A. ↑,
67', Karimov R. ↓, Buric N. ↑,
69', Kazukolovas K. ↓, Kasym A. ↑,
75', Zhumakhanov A. 🟨,
80', Zhumakhanov A. ↓, Baygaliev A. ↑,
81', Karaman D. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
90+2', Abrayev M. 🟨,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 6).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 3.
Astana has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Yelimay has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Astana is the team to beat.
We predict that Astana will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Astana won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
Watch
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Seysen M. (G) 
Bartolec K. 
Kazukolovas K. 
Basic I. 
Konovalov I. (G) 
Tanasijevic S. 
Mittendorfer M. 
Placca F. (C) 
China 
Ahanonu N. 
Murillo R. 
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