Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Referee: Zatula A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Zhenis		Astana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	3.10	2.15
	3.00	3.05	2.10	Watch
	3.02	3.18	2.20
	3.03	2.99	2.37	Watch
	2.95	3.10	2.13
	3.15	3.53	2.16	Watch
	3.05	3.20	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.65)	3.16 ↑ (3.13)	2.19 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhenis
30%

Draw
28.6%

Astana
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

29.4%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

29.1%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhenis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Astana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Astana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Astana than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Astana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Zhenis - Astana Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Zhenis will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Astana will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Plotnikov M. (G) 4. Bystrov M. 13. Tursynbay S. 63. Saravanja I. 3. Kpozo P. 14. Saulet A. 7. Kuat I. (C) 88. Martins G. 10. Imnadze L. 19. Adilio 93. Elder Santana	93. Condric J. (G) 2. Bartolec K. 5. Kazukolovas K. 3. Kalaica B. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 15. Beysebekov A. (C) 7. Karaman D. 10. Tomasov M. 9. Islamkhan B. 47. Abrayev M. 72. Basmanov S.
Substitutes
17. Adilov A. 72. Askarov M. 97. Besengaliyev Y. 11. Filipovic A. 8. Khaseyn M. 18. Madelkhan B. 9. Naumets V. 77. Shanshar N. (G) 1. Sotnik I. (G)	20. Ahanonu N. 4. Anuarov S. 57. Kaltanov A. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 21. Merkel A. 74. Seysen M. (G) 77. Shomko D. 91. Token A. 52. Tokenov T. 82. Valikhan R.
Coaches
Aliyev A.	Babayan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Vorogovskiy Y. 🟨,
11', Imnadze L. ↓, Naumets V. ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Tomasov M. ⚽, Basmanov S. (A),
34', Tomasov M. 🟨,
35', Kazukolovas K. 🟨,
38', Beysebekov A. 🟥,
42', Islamkhan B. ↓, Merkel A. ↑,
43', Kpozo P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Abrayev M. ↓, Shomko D. ↑,
46', Tursynbay S. ↓, Filipovic A. ↑,
46', Kpozo P. ↓, Askarov M. ↑,
59', Bystrov M. 🟨,
61', Kuat I. 🟨,
67', Basmanov S. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Martins G. ⚽,
69', Saulet A. ↓, Khaseyn M. ↑,
73', Basmanov S. ↓, Ahanonu N. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Khaseyn M. ⚽,
84', Bartolec K. ↓, Kaltanov A. ↑,
84', Plotnikov M. 🟨,
86', Naumets V. ↓, Adilov A. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 2, Kaltanov A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 2.

Recent form of Zhenis has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Astana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Astana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Astana could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Zhenis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zhenis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.2:1.4).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Premier League
20.06.26	Zhenis - Ertis Pavlodar	0:0 ✺
14.06.26	Ulytau - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
28.05.26	Zhenis - Kaspiy Aktau	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Zhenis	2:1 ✺
17.05.26	Zhenis - Kairat	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TLWLL
- FC Astana
Kazakh Premier League
21.06.26	Aktobe - Astana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
27.05.26	Altai Semey - Astana	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Astana - Ulytau	3:0 ✺
16.05.26	Okzhetpes - Astana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
23.08.25	Zhenis - Astana	3:2
24.05.25	Astana - Zhenis	4:2
Kazakh Cup
14.05.25	Zhenis - Astana	2:1 penalties
Kazakh League Cup
23.11.24	Zhenis - Astana	0:2 ET
Kazakh Premier League
29.09.24	Zhenis - Astana	1:1
Kazakh Cup
13.04.24	Zhenis - Astana	0:1
Kazakh Premier League
01.03.24	Astana - Zhenis	2:0

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