Match Info

GREECE: Super League - Round 5

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Grigoris Lambrakis Stadium (Athens)

Referee: Tzilos T. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Nova Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
Usa	SportPlus


	Athens Kallithea		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.33	1.48	Watch
	6.5	4.5	1.44
	6.2	4.55	1.44
	6.71	4.63	1.47
	6.5	4.48	1.45	Watch
	6.5	4.4	1.4
	6.8	4.55	1.46	Watch
	6.2	4.3	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.49 ↓ (8.15)	4.47 ↓ (5.2)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athens Kallithea
14.4%

Draw
21%

AEK Athens
64.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

18.3%

70%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.4%

17.8%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athens Kallithea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Athens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athens Kallithea than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Athens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Athens Kallithea - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Barragan B. (G) 6. Motoc A. 77. Isimat-Mirin N. 58. Pasalidis T. 14. Manthatis G. 26. Mercati A. 30. Diba S. 5. Hanousek M. 10. Demethryus 27. Moutinho T. 18. Giani E.	1. Strakosha T. (G) 13. Pineda O. 21. Vida D. 2. Moukoudi H. 3. Pilios S. 4. Szymanski D. 37. Pereyra R. 19. Eliasson N. 20. Mantalos P. 11. Koita A. 14. Pierrot F.
Substitutes
24. Gelios I. (G) 25. Loukinas G. 8. Matilla J. 17. Ndiaye M. 23. Soiri P. 37. Tsivelekidis G. 9. Uldrikis R. 28. Valbuena M. 7. Vasilogiannis A.	18. Callens A. 22. Fernandes P. 25. Galanopoulos K. 28. Hajsafi E. 6. Jonsson J. 24. Mitoglou G. 99. Theocharis G. (G) 16. Tsiloulis S. 10. Zuber S.
Coaches
Donati M.	Almeyda M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Pasalidis T. 🟨,
23', Motoc A. 🟨,
37', Moukoudi H. ↓, Callens A. ↑,
45', Koita A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Mercati A. 🟨,
65', Mantalos P. 🟨,
66', Koita A. ↓, Zuber S. ↑,
66', Szymanski D. ↓, Jonsson J. ↑,
66', Demethryus ↓, Vasilogiannis A. ↑,
67', Mercati A. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
71', Pasalidis T. ↓, Tsivelekidis G. ↑,
72', Moutinho T. ↓, Valbuena M. ↑,
76', Eliasson N. ↓, Fernandes P. ↑,
76', Pereyra R. ↓, Tsiloulis S. ↑,
78', Jonsson J. 🟨,
85', Giani E. ↓, Soiri P. ↑,
90+1', Pineda O. 🟨,
90+6', Pilios S. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 11 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).

Recent matches Athens Kallithea is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

AEK is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athens Kallithea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Athens Kallithea have a series of guest games.

Recently AEK have a series of home games.

In this match AEK is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Athens Kallithea won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Athens Kallithea won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athens Kallithea
Greek Super League
14.09.24	Lamia - Athens Kallithea	0:0 ✺
01.09.24	Athens Kallithea - Panathinaikos	2:2 ✺
26.08.24	Olympiacos Piraeus - Athens Kallithea	2:1 ✺
18.08.24	Levadiakos - Athens Kallithea	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.24	Asteras Tripolis - Athens Kallithea	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 TTLTT
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
16.09.24	AEK Athens - Volos	2:0 ✺
01.09.24	Levadiakos - AEK Athens	0:3 ✺
24.08.24	AEK Athens - Lamia	1:1 ✺
18.08.24	AEK Athens - OFI	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.08.24	AEK Athens - Noah Yerevan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Greek Cup
30.11.17	Athens Kallithea - AEK Athens	2:3
Greek Football League - Group 1
29.03.15	Athens Kallithea - AEK Athens	0:2
11.01.15	AEK Athens - Athens Kallithea	5:1

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