Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 29

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Athletic Bilbao B		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.1
	1.75	3.2	4.33
	1.78	3.3	4.45
	1.77	3.46	4.39
	1.78	3.51	4.49	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.2
	1.74	3.3	4.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.88)	3.3 ↓ (3.37)	4.36 ↑ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao B
51.5%

Draw
27.6%

Mérida AD
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.6%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

27%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Athletic Bilbao B - Mérida AD Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 3. De Luis J. 14. Izagirre Cestona A. 19. Louis-Jean J. 15. Alday I. 6. Gibelalde M. 8. Lete E. 18. Garcia E. 22. Perez A. 23. Gift E. 9. Sanz I.	1. Csenterics A. (G) 3. Lancho J. 4. Pareja L. 23. Verges E. 20. Jacobo R. 6. Geovanny 8. Solar M. 21. Beneit R. 11. Areso J. 7. Chiqui 14. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
12. Barandalla M. 32. Belategi D. 11. Bujan E. 27. Galindo I. (G) 1. Gamen E. (G) 7. Hierro A. 2. Irurita X. 20. Korkut E. 26. Sola J. 34. Urzaiz U.	13. Cacharron P. (G) 16. Capitas M. 18. Dibrani B. 5. Dominguez J. 10. Doncel C. 12. Gomes R. 9. Hallsson S. 17. Herranz Corral V. 15. Martinez G. 24. Pereira R. 22. Rivas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Gift E. ⚽,
35', Areso J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Pareja L. ⚽,
44', Pareja L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Gibelalde M. ↓, Korkut E. ↑,
58', Geovanny 🟨,
64', Sanz I. ↓, Hierro A. ↑,
64', Garcia E. ↓, Sola J. ↑,
72', Beneit R. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
72', Chiqui ↓, Doncel C. ↑,
81', El Ftouhi S. ↓, Hallsson S. ↑,
81', Pareja L. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
88', Areso J. ↓, Rivas M. ↑,
88', Perez A. ↓, Bujan E. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Athletic Bilbao B will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic Bilbao B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11
14	AD Merida	6	2	0	4	9:11	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.03.26	Osasuna B - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Zamora	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTLWL
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.03.26	Mérida AD - CD Guadalajara	1:4 ✺
07.03.26	Mérida AD - Talavera de la Reina	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Celta de Vigo B - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Mérida AD - Cacereño	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3

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