Match Info

Serie B - Round 12

Date: 10 June 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	21:00	Disney+


	Sport Recife		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.20	4.20	Watch
	1.93	3.00	4.00
	1.77	3.45	4.60	Watch
	2.00	3.25	4.62
	1.8	3.27	4.94	Watch
	1.95	2.90	4.00
	1.94	3.18	4.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.63)	3.18 ↓ (3.56)	4.36 ↓ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
49.2%

Draw
29.4%

Athletic Club
21.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.4%

25.9%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

25%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sport Recife's form might have worsened.

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sport Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	11.8%	0%

Sport Recife - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: Sport Recife will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 4. Ze Marcos 60. Felipinho 48. Pedro Martins 47. Fabio Matheus 6. Biel Fonseca 96. Edson Lucas 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Pedro Perotti	1. Luan Polli (G) 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 6. Zeca (C) 22. Diogo Batista 8. Cabezas G. 16. Joao Miguel 17. Kauan Rodrigues 5. Ian Luccas 11. Max 21. Vera D.
Substitutes
75. Arthur Maron 68. Augusto 10. de Pena Carlos 11. Gustavo Maia 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 3. Marcelo Ajul 31. Marlon Douglas 8. Max Alves 77. Micael 66. Rafinha 23. Ze Gabriel	7. Bruninho 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 20. Gabriel Moyses 10. Gustavinho 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 15. Jota 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 19. Ruan Assis
Coaches
Azevedo M.	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Edson Lucas ↓, de Pena Carlos ↑,
46', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
57', Vera D. ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
57', Max ↓, Bruninho ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Augusto ⚽, Biel Fonseca (A),
66', 1 - 1, Ian Luccas ⚽, Diogo Batista (A),
68', Diogo Batista ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
73', de Pena Carlos 🟨,
73', Bruninho 🟨,
75', Jhonatan Luiz 🟨,
79', Biel Fonseca ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
83', Cabezas G. ↓, Jota ↑,
83', Ian Luccas ↓, Gabriel Moyses ↑,
86', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Max Alves ↑,
86', Pedro Martins ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Recife is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Iury Castilho (Yellow Cards) Marlon Douglas (Inactive) Yago Felipe (Yellow Cards) Ze Lucas (Yellow Cards) Ze Roberto (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Inactive) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive) Sidimar (Inactive) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Recife: Clayson (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Recife won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Including home match between the teams, Recife won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47:38	9	54
14	Athletic Club	35	10	14	11	40:40	0	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Juventude - Sport Recife	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Sport Recife - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WLWWL
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
25.05.26	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Athletic Club - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.05.26	Internacional RS - Athletic Club	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
09.05.26	Athletic Club - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3

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