Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 1

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.1	3.9	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.05	3.1	3.65	Watch
	2.12	3.13	4.02
	2.05	3.22	3.76	Watch
	2.1	3	3.6
	2.03	3.18	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.81)	3.12 ↓ (3.23)	3.73 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
45.2%

Draw
29.8%

Ponte Preta
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28.4%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

27.2%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Club's form might have worsened.

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Club, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Athletic Club - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Ponte Preta (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 50%). Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glauco (G) 2. Diogo Batista 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 6. Zeca (C) 8. Cabezas G. 5. Ian Luccas 7. Bruninho 15. Jota 11. Ruan Assis 9. Tavares R.	12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Lucas Justen 3. Lucas Cunha 33. David Braz 32. Kevyson 20. Murilo 38. Tarik 31. Bryan Borges 19. Jonathan Cafu 9. Willian Pottker (C) 99. Brandao
Substitutes
18. Alexandre Pena 12. Eduardo Freire (G) 14. Felipe Vieira 13. Gabriel Indio 22. Gabriel Moyses 20. Gustavinho 16. Joao Miguel 10. Kauan Lindes 17. Kauan Rodrigues 19. Leo Chu 21. Pedro Oliveira 26. Samuel Otusanya	26. Baianinho 18. David da Hora 13. Diego Porfirio 7. Diego Tavares 10. Elvis 30. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 11. Luis Phelipe 23. Palacios S. 5. Rodrigo Souza 6. Saravia Salvia R. A. 27. Thalys
Coaches
Alex Souza	Rodrigo Santana

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Ian Luccas ⚽,
30', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Bryan Borges ⚽, Brandao (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Jota ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
58', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Elvis ↑,
59', Kevyson ↓, Diego Porfirio ↑,
62', Bruninho ↓, Leo Chu ↑,
63', Ian Luccas ↓, Kauan Rodrigues ↑,
71', Tarik ↓, Luis Phelipe ↑,
78', Cabezas G. ↓, Joao Miguel ↑,
84', Ruan Assis ↓, Pedro Oliveira ↑,
84', Jota ↓, Gabriel Indio ↑,
84', Willian Pottker ↓, Baianinho ↑,
84', Murilo ↓, David da Hora ↑,
89', Kauan Rodrigues 🟨,
90+2', Luis Phelipe 🟨,
90+9', Tavares R. 🟨,

Preview

Athletic is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ponte Preta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletic is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Douglas Pele (Injury) Enzo (Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Joao Gabriel (Injury)

We predict that Athletic will win today's game, with odds of 2.11.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
11.03.26	Athletic Club - Ypiranga	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Athletic Club	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
14.02.26	Athletic Club - Tombense	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WWWTT
- AA Ponte Preta
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Ponte Preta - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Portuguesa - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Guarani - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL

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