Match Info

Mineiro - Round 8

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	IT tv Plus


	Athletic Club		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.4	Watch
	1.99	3.4	3.66
	2.2	3.24	3.08	Watch
	1.91	3	3.6
	1.95	3.34	3.91	Watch
	1.95	3.33	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.16)	3.25 ↑ (3)	3.57 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
45.9%

Draw
28.3%

Tombense
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

30.6%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

30.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+1%)

Athletic Club - Tombense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Glauco (G) 2. Zeca 3. Jhonatan Silva (C) 4. Gabriel Indio 6. Felipe Vieira 8. Kauan Rodrigues 5. Ian Luccas 7. Vera D. 10. David Braga 11. Ruan Assis 9. Tavares R.	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 2. Auro 3. Breno Roma 4. Wesley (C) 6. PH 8. Dyego 5. Joao Vitor 11. Jefferson Renan 10. Pedro Oliveira 7. Rafinha 9. Julio Cesar
Substitutes
20. Caicedo Nestor 19. Caick 22. Carlito Thiago 13. Copete D. 17. da Silva Sinfronio G. 14. Edson Miranda 26. Eduardo Freire (G) 21. Gabriel Ferreira 18. Joao Oliveira 16. Kauan Lindes 12. Robert (G)	18. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 21. Felipinho 19. Jupi 17. Luiz Felipe 20. Ronald 14. Rony Fernandes 15. Wanderson 16. Xavier
Coaches
Duarte R.	Borges C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Felipe Vieira ⚽, Tavares R. (A),
22', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
25', Pedro Oliveira 🟨,
39', Joao Vitor 🟨,
42', Vera D. 🟨,
45+4', Kauan Rodrigues 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vera D. ↓, Copete D. ↑,
57', Ruan Assis 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Pedro Oliveira ⚽,
68', Ruan Assis ↓, Kauan Lindes ↑,
68', Felipe Vieira ↓, da Silva Sinfronio G. ↑,
74', PH ↓, Xavier ↑,
74', Ian Luccas ↓, Caick ↑,
74', Rafinha ↓, Ronald ↑,
82', Copete D. 🟨,
87', Dyego 🟥,
89', Zeca ↓, Caicedo Nestor ↑,
89', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Rony Fernandes ↑,
89', Auro ↓, Cleiton ↑,
90+3', Caick 🟨,
90+6', Jefferson Renan ↓, Felipinho ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3.

Athletic has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tombense is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Athletic will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Athletic Club - Uberlândia	0:3 ✺
25.01.26	Athletic Club - Betim	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Pouso Alegre - Athletic Club	3:4 ✺
17.01.26	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLTWT
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
07.02.26	Tombense - URT	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	Itabirito - Tombense	2:3 ✺
25.01.26	Tombense - Democrata GV	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Tombense - North Esporte Clube	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Tombense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.02.25	Athletic Club - Tombense	3:1
Brazilian Serie C
27.07.24	Tombense - Athletic Club	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
03.02.24	Tombense - Athletic Club	1:0
21.01.23	Athletic Club - Tombense	3:1
09.02.22	Athletic Club - Tombense	1:0
04.04.21	Tombense - Athletic Club	2:1

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