Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 24 August 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Athletic Club		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.00	2.20	Watch
	3.20	2.90	2.25
	3.05	3.10	2.38	Watch
	3.58	3.10	2.31
	3.32	3.04	2.31	Watch
	3.45	3.05	2.25
	3.32	2.97	2.30	Watch
	3.30	3.00	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.8)	3.02 ↓ (3.1)	2.28 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
28%

Draw
31%

Grêmio Novorizontino
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

30.1%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

30%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Club's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Club, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 4. Belezi (C) 16. Joao Miguel 19. Pool J. 22. Diogo Batista 5. Felipe Negrucci 15. Jota 23. Enzo Santos 11. Max 20. Aponza W. 17. Kauan Rodrigues	93. Jordi (G) 2. Madson 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 5. Sander 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 30. Nicolas Careca 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
3. Alexandre Pena 18. Assis 7. Bruninho 8. Cabezas G. 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 10. Gustavinho 9. Kauan Lindes 6. Marcelo Henrique 12. Tony (G) 21. Vera D. 14. Yago Santos	9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 22. Ivan Alvarino 50. Juninho 28. Marlon 17. Matheus Bianqui 66. Maykon Jesus 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Alex Souza	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Diogo Batista 🟨,
18', Jota 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Nicolas Careca ⚽, Romulo (A),
33', Jota ↓, Vera D. ↑,
45+1', Diogo Batista 🟨,
45+3', Alex Souza 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Pool J. ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
59', 0 - 2, Robson ⚽,
61', Enzo Santos ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
61', Max ↓, Assis ↑,
61', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
68', Felipe Negrucci ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
73', Romulo ↓, Diego Galo ↑,
73', Leo Naldi ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
77', 0 - 3, Matheus Bianqui ⚽, Diego Galo (A),
80', Robson ↓, Carlao ↑,
80', Nicolas Careca ↓, Maykon Jesus ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Aponza W. ⚽, Assis (A),
90+5', 1 - 4, Luis Oyama ⚽, Juninho (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Athletic is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Novorizontino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Ortiz C. (Injury) Renato Palm (Inactive) Ronald Barcellos (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
20.08.26	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
09.08.26	Athletic Club - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWWTW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
20.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	CRB Maceio - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Juventude	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Londrina - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
21.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
19.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	2:1
19.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	1:0
17.05.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2

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