Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 7 July 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Athletic Club		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.85	3.00	Watch
	2.40	2.95	2.90
	2.28	3.00	3.30
	2.41	2.96	3.58
	2.31	2.99	3.37
	2.6	2.95	3
	2.56	2.89	2.97	Watch
	2.27	2.95	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.36)	2.94 ↑ (2.94)	3.18 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
38.7%

Draw
31.9%

Operário Ferroviario
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

31.5%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

32.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	45.5%	18.2%

Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Operário PR will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Operário PR (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Operário PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Luan Polli (G) 6. Zeca (C) 3. Jhonatan Silva 4. Belezi 23. Enzo Santos 8. Cabezas G. 16. Joao Miguel 15. Jota 11. Max 5. Ian Luccas 17. Kauan Rodrigues	33. Vagner (G) 2. Mikael Doka 22. Cuenu J. 16. Miranda 27. Gabriel Feliciano 14. Pereira H. 39. Matheus Trindade 20. Vinicius Diniz 6. Moraes 10. Boschilia (C) 92. Pablo
Substitutes
7. Bruninho 22. Diogo Batista 2. Douglas Pele 13. Felipe Vieira 9. Gabriel Moyses 10. Gustavinho 19. Gustavo Morais 12. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 20. Luiz Fernando 14. Marcelo Henrique 18. Pedro Oliveira 21. Vera D.	99. Caio Dantas 32. Charles Raphael 1. Elias Curzel (G) 7. Felipe Augusto 5. Indio 23. Joao Gabriel 44. Klaus 26. Maguinho 88. Neto Paraiba 30. Pedro Vilhena 9. Vinicius Mingotti
Coaches
Alex Souza	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Jota 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jota ↓, Vera D. ↑,
52', Cabezas G. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Cabezas G. (Own goal),
55', Cabezas G. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
71', Pereira H. ↓, Neto Paraiba ↑,
72', Enzo Santos ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
72', Max ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
77', Moraes ↓, Felipe Augusto ↑,
77', Mikael Doka ↓, Maguinho ↑,
78', Miranda ↓, Klaus ↑,
78', Cuenu J. 🟨,
79', Cuenu J. 🟨,
83', Zeca ↓, Gabriel Moyses ↑,
83', Pablo ↓, Charles Raphael ↑,
88', Vagner 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 7).

Athletic has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Operário PR is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Athletic: Gabriel Indio (Injury) Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Operário PR: Brenno Pereira (Knee Injury) Pool J. (Inactive) Zuluaga J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Operário PR: Vinicius Mingotti (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Athletic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Operario-PR: 0.3% Athletic Club: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	44:43	1	48
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	38:37	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Club - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 39.27%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Operário Ferroviario - the odds 3.16 are the expected chance of winning is 29.23%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Londrina - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Athletic Club - Goiás	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WLTTW
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
27.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Goiás - Operário Ferroviario	0:3 ✺
14.06.26	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
05.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - Juventude	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Ceará - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.10.25	Operário Ferroviario - Athletic Club	1:4
14.06.25	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	2:1

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