Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 38

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletic Club		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	7	Watch
	1.44	4.15	7.1
	1.35	4.55	8.91
	1.37	4.40	8.76	Watch
	1.44	4.31	6.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.38)	4.35 ↓ (4.42)	7.75 ↓ (8.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
66.5%

Draw
21.5%

Paysandu
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

21%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

13.8%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Club that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paysandu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Athletic Club - Paysandu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Athletic (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Club will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Adriel (G) 2. Douglas Pele 4. Sidimar (C) 6. Yuri 8. Chico Geraldes 15. Indio G. 38. Sandry 20. Joao Miguel 47. Guilherme Cachoeira 19. Tavares R. 7. Welinton Torrao	12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 2. Edilson 3. Quintana Y. (C) 34. Lucca Carvalho 21. Bryan Borges 43. Ramon Vinicius 39. Goncalves P. 38. Carlos Eduardo 30. Marcelinho 19. Petterson Novaes 26. Wendel
Substitutes
27. Alason Carioca 17. Da Cruz A. 10. David Braga 45. Edson Miranda 70. Eduardo Freire (G) 11. Ezequiel 14. Fabricio Isidoro 22. Gabriel Ferreira 25. Glauco (G) 28. Kauan Lindes 23. Luiz Filipe 52. Wesley Gasolina	98. Denilson 16. Henrique Salomoni 31. Iago Hass (G) 22. Joao Marcos 94. Kaua Hinkel 15. larley 20. Matheus Capixaba 99. Vinicius Faria
Coaches
Duarte R.	Alvares I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Petterson Novaes ⚽, Edilson (A),
22', Joao Miguel 🟨,
43', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Da Cruz A. ↑,
50', Lucca Carvalho ↓, larley ↑,
57', Gabriel Mesquita 🟨,
60', Joao Miguel ↓, Kauan Lindes ↑,
61', Douglas Pele ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
70', Goncalves P. 🟨,
70', Chico Geraldes ↓, David Braga ↑,
73', Petterson Novaes ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
73', Wendel ↓, Denilson ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Da Cruz A. ⚽, Yuri (A),
84', Quintana Y. 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Da Cruz A. ⚽,
88', Marcelinho ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
88', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Kaua Hinkel ↑,
90', Welinton Torrao ↓, Fabricio Isidoro ↑,
90+3', Kauan Lindes 🟨,
90+4', Goncalves P. 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Paysandu is Relegated to Serie C (First stage )

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletic is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Athletic: Jhonatan Silva (Yellow Cards) Marcelo Ajul (Yellow Cards) Martinez F. (Yellow Cards) Max (Inactive) Neto Costa (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Gelado (Inactive)

There will not play in Paysandu: Andre Lima (Yellow Cards) Denner (Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Leandro Vilela (Injury) Marlon Douglas (Yellow Cards) Matheus Nogueira (Injury) Matheus Vargas (Injury) Ronaldo Henrique (Inactive) Rossi (Inactive) Thiago Heleno (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: David Braga (Injury) Luiz Filipe (Injury)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Diogo Oliveira (Injury) Gustavo Nicola (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletic won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
15.11.25	Coritiba - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
07.11.25	Athletic Club - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Avaí - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Athletic Club - América Mineiro	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Remo - Athletic Club	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLLL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
14.11.25	Paysandu - Amazonas	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Paysandu - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Atlético Goianiense - Paysandu	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Paysandu - Avaí	1:2 ✺
20.10.25	Ferroviária - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.07.25	Paysandu - Athletic Club	1:1

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