Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 21

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Turkey	Spor Smart 2
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Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Corinthians		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.10	3.30	Watch
	2.25	3.00	3.60
	2.10	3.05	3.85	Watch
	2.38	3.02	3.71
	1.95	3.23	4.42	Watch
	2.25	3.00	3.70
	2.30	3.05	3.58	Watch
	2.30	3.05	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.9)	3.06 ↓ (3.3)	3.71 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
43%

Draw
31.2%

Athletico Paranaense
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

28.5%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Corinthians's form might have worsened.

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Corinthians (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (C) 2. Matheuzinho 5. Andre Ramalho 14. Raniele 20. Milans P. 19. Carrillo A. 29. Allan 61. Dieguinho 23. Pereira M. 52. Labyad Z. 77. Lingard J.	23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 22. Teran C. 4. Arthur Dias 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 27. Portilla J. 26. Claudinho 21. Leozinho 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
49. Andre 7. Breno Bidon 35. Charles Rigon 3. Gabriel Paulista 8. Garro R. 56. Gui Negao 13. Gustavo Henrique 4. Joao Pedro 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 55. Machado I. 9. Yuri Alberto	33. Aguirre F. 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 11. Isaac 8. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 42. Mateus Soares (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Diniz F.	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Benavidez G. 🟨,
45+1', Jadson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Labyad Z. ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
46', Dieguinho ↓, Yuri Alberto ↑,
46', Claudinho ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
65', Leozinho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
65', Mendoza S. ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
77', Pereira M. ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
78', Yuri Alberto ↓, Garro R. ↑,
82', Viveros K. ↓, Rivaldo J. ↑,
83', Carrillo A. ↓, Andre ↑,
86', Andre Ramalho 🟨,
87', Matheuzinho 🟨,
90+2', Garro R. 🟨,
90+3', Teran C. ↓, Aguirre F. ↑,
90+5', Santos 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 4.

In recent matches, Athletico PR has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Corinthians is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 11 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:14. (average 1.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Corinthians: 0.85% Athletico-PR: 0.31%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Corinthians - Remo	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.26	FC Cascavel - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Grêmio - Corinthians	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.05.26	Corinthians - Platense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWTWL
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.26	Athletico Paranaense - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	Boca Juniors - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
27.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.24	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	5:2
23.06.24	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	1:1
01.11.23	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	1:0
24.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Corinthians	1:0

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