Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 22

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Vila Belmiro (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Santos		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.20	3.70	Watch
	2.10	3.30	3.60
	2.12	3.25	3.40	Watch
	2.14	3.34	3.88
	2.18	3.23	3.59	Watch
	2.11	3.25	3.80
	2.22	3.29	3.62	Watch
	2.12	3.30	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.27)	3.27 ↑ (3.25)	3.67 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
44.8%

Draw
29.2%

Athletico Paranaense
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Santos - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Santos will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 98. Frias A. 26. Joao Ananias 31. Escobar G. 28. Oliva C. 5. Joao Schmidt 8. Gabriel Bontempo 17. Caballero G. 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)	1. Mycael (G) 29. Benavidez G. 33. Aguirre F. 4. Arthur Dias 12. Gilberto 16. Jadson 14. Luiz Gustavo (C) 8. Joao Cruz 21. Leozinho 7. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K.
Substitutes
1. Diogenes (G) 27. Fernandes D. 42. Joao Alencar 14. Luan Peres 30. Miguelito 57. Nadson 81. Pierri S. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Rony 16. Thaciano 15. Willian Arao	18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 25. Dantas 63. Diogo Riquelme 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 2. Gilberto Junior 3. Leo 6. Leo Derik 42. Mateus Soares (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Rivaldo J. 10. Zapelli B.
Coaches
Cuca	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Viveros K. ⚽,
20', Frias A. 🟨,
26', 0 - 2, Viveros K. ⚽, Joao Cruz (A),
34', Viveros K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Caballero G. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
60', Leozinho ↓, Calderon Vargas K. A. ↑,
60', Jadson ↓, Felipinho ↑,
61', Gilberto ↓, Dantas ↑,
61', Oliva C. ↓, Rony ↑,
71', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Diogo Riquelme ↑,
80', Joao Schmidt ↓, Willian Arao ↑,
80', Gabriel Menino ↓, Thaciano ↑,
85', Joao Cruz ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Santos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:19. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 1.4:0.5).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Athletico-PR: 0.33% Santos: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Athletico-PR	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.8%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Copa do Brasil
04.08.26	Remo - Santos	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Santos - Remo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.07.26	Santos - Universidad Central	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.26	Santos - Chapecoense	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.07.26	Universidad Central - Santos	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTWTW
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa do Brasil
06.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Athletico Paranaense	4:0 ✺
03.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.26	Corinthians - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	Athletico Paranaense - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1
03.12.23	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	3:0
05.08.23	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
27.09.22	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	2:0
04.06.22	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:2
30.10.21	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	0:1
Copa do Brasil
14.09.21	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:1

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