Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		Amarante

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.25
	2.31	3	3
	2.36	3.3	3.1
	2.41	3.2	2.96	Watch
	2.34	3.23	3.02	Watch
	2.31	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.87)	3.12 ↓ (3.23)	3.06 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
40.2%

Draw
29.6%

Amarante
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

28.5%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

28.4%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético CP's form might have worsened.

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Amarante's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético CP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Amarante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético CP - Amarante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ribeiro L. (G) 31. Paulinho 4. Henriques D. 23. Almeida B. 45. Junior T. 5. Durand V. 60. Marques R. 28. Cruz H. 10. Caleb 11. Franco E. 17. Silva D.	65. Figueiredo D. (G) 17. Filipe R. 4. Filipe J. 88. Aguiar E. 6. Daniel Alves 5. Guedes R. 7. Sousa C. 12. Zangre A. 8. Helder Pedro 10. Semedo K. 80. Dinho
Substitutes
7. Barandas M. 99. Caldeira M. (G) 20. Gonzalez F. 14. Joaozinho 9. Nicolas Souza 22. Pinheiro E.	30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 9. Cardoso F. 13. Flores R. (G) 42. Iroanya E. 16. Leandro M. 18. Okoli F. 2. Ribeiro O. 70. Zakari B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Henriques D. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Caleb ⚽,
39', 3 - 0, Caleb (Pen),
43', Helder Pedro 🟨,
45', Dinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dinho ↓, Zakari B. ↑,
46', Sousa C. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
55', 🟨,
77', Almeida B. 🟨,
78', 3 - 1, Aguiar E. ⚽,
82', Durand V. ↓, Barandas M. ↑,
82', Franco E. ↓, Joaozinho ↑,
83', Semedo K. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 6)

Atlético CP is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Amarante has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Amarante has had a series of home games.

Atlético CP might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético CP won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Fafe - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Atlético CP - Varzim	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLTW
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Amarante - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Amarante - Varzim	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.25	Amarante - Atlético CP	2:0

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