Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Sporting Lisbon B

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.5
	2.05	3.1	3.45
	2.16	3.13	3.54	Watch
	2.17	3.1	3.51	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.24)	3.09 ↑ (3)	3.49 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
44.1%

Draw
29.7%

Sporting Lisbon B
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.5%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

29%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Sporting Lisbon B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon B than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Amarante - Sporting Lisbon B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
65. Figueiredo D. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 4. Filipe J. (C) 88. Aguiar E. 17. Filipe R. 5. Guedes R. 8. Helder Pedro 7. Sousa C. 18. Okoli F. 12. Zangre A. 10. Semedo K.	41. Diego Callai (G) 53. Dias R. 43. Muniz J. 95. Taibo Dominguez L. 45. Moreira D. 81. Arreiol H. 50. Brito A. 88. Mendonca M. (C) 55. Silva J. 90. Moreira A. 78. Couto M.
Substitutes
30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 9. Cardoso F. 6. Daniel Alves 80. Dinho 13. Flores R. (G) 42. Iroanya E. 16. Leandro M. 70. Zakari B.	67. Anjos L. 80. Gomes L. 58. Goncalves F. 46. Junior M. 59. Kaua Oliveira 79. Marques R. 74. Pires G. (G) 82. Silva G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Filipe J. 🟥,
26', Arreiol H. 🟨,
29', Muniz J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Silva J. ↓, Besugo R. ↑,
46', Arreiol H. ↓, Goncalves F. ↑,
65', Filipe R. 🟨,
66', 0 - 1, Moreira A. ⚽,
71', Filipe R. ↓, Iroanya E. ↑,
71', Sousa C. ↓, Leandro M. ↑,
89', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
89', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 and 4).

Amarante is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sporting B is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sporting B could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Amarante will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Belenenses - Amarante	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Amarante - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	1 Dezembro - Amarante	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWLLL
- Sporting Lisbon B
English Premier League International Cup
17.03.25	Fulham U21 - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - 1 Dezembro	3:0 ✺
22.02.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Belenenses	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTTWL

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