Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 5

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Location: Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe (Fafe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Fafe		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.6
	2	3.07	4.37
	1.08	9.30	25.00	Watch
	1.99	3.04	3.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.89)	4.63 ↑ (3.31)	9.18 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fafe
63.7%

Draw
24.1%

Amarante
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

28%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.2%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fafe's performance.

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Amarante might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fafe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amarante could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Fafe - Amarante Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fafe will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fafe (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Fafe (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fafe (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:-1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
64. Martins T. (G) 85. Castro D. 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 20. Amorim J. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 9. Santos J. 10. Ka 11. Picas	1. Duarte M. (G) 2. Ribeiro O. 4. Filipe J. (C) 3. Mendes F. 12. Lawrence 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 6. Almeida F. 8. Helder Pedro 28. Pedro R. 23. Saint-Louis J. 90. Arome
Substitutes
77. Carlos Daniel 1. Damaso N. (G) 21. Davis SIlva 95. Fonseca T. 15. Pais B. 78. Pinto G. 24. Sampaio T. 79. Tomas T. 7. Veiga T.	88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 13. Flores R. (G) 5. Innusah H. 10. Rodrigues D. 99. Roger 80. Ventura 64. Vila D. 22. Vivas S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Santos J. ⚽, Picas (A),
16', Lawrence 🟨,
23', Lawrence 🟨,
35', Ribeiro O. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Pedro R. 🟨,
48', Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 🟥,
56', 2 - 0, Santos J. ⚽,
59', Santos J. ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
59', Teixeira L. ↓, Pinto G. ↑,
66', Pedro R. ↓, Antunes Tiago C. J. ↑,
66', Ribeiro O. ↓, Vivas S. ↑,
67', 3 - 0, Ka ⚽, Vigario J. (A),
70', Ka ↓, Carlos Daniel ↑,
70', Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↓, Veiga T. ↑,
75', Amorim J. ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
79', Helder Pedro ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Fafe could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Fafe won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fafe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Fafe - São João de Ver	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Varzim - Fafe	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Oriental - Fafe	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Trofense - Fafe	5:1 ✺
24.08.25	Fafe - Marco 09	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTWLT
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
05.10.25	Braga B - Amarante	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Amarante - São João de Ver	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Amarante - União de Santarém	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Marco 09 - Amarante	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Tirsense - Amarante	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3
18.01.25	Amarante - Fafe	0:0
06.10.24	Fafe - Amarante	4:1
Taça de Portugal
08.09.24	Fafe - Amarante	1:4
03.09.17	Fafe - Amarante	0:1 ET

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