Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.35
	3	3.23	2.47
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↓ (2.94)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	2.41 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
32.4%

Draw
29.2%

Fafe
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28.7%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

27.8%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+3%)

Atlético CP - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ribeiro L. (G) 31. Paulinho (C) 4. Henriques D. 23. Almeida B. 29. Dinamite D. 28. Cruz H. 8. Pipo 10. Caleb 14. Joaozinho 17. Silva D. 11. Franco E.	98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 22. Bruninho 8. Braga V. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 10. Serra Matos P. M. 7. Leite T. 12. Farias E.
Substitutes
30. Dias J. (G) 5. Durand V. 20. Gonzalez F. 45. Junior T. 60. Marques R. 77. Mendes J. 9. Nicolas Souza 22. Pinheiro E. 88. Pinto P.	1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 88. Erico 9. Kodama R. 6. Lucas Vital 44. Morais B. 5. Nandinho 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 2. Sousa B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Teixeira L. 🟨,
10', Dinamite D. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Almeida B. ⚽,
29', Braga V. 🟨,
45+1', Cardoso F. ↓, Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Farias E. ↓, Picas ↑,
46', Batista J. ↓, Morais B. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Franco E. ⚽,
66', Bruninho ↓, Kodama R. ↑,
74', Silva D. ↓, Nicolas Souza ↑,
74', Dinamite D. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Nicolas Souza ⚽,
80', Serra Matos P. M. ↓, Erico ↑,
83', 4 - 0, Paulinho ⚽,
87', Franco E. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
87', Pipo ↓, Marques R. ↑,
89', Caleb ↓, Pinto P. ↑,
90+1', Erico 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 (Promotion: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Varzim - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético CP - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético CP - Oliveira Hospital	2:0 ✺
19.01.25	Caldas - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTTWT
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
09.02.25	Fafe - 1 Dezembro	3:1 ✺
26.01.25	Fafe - Anadia	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Amarante - Fafe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWTT

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