Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)


	Atlético CP		Lusitano GC

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.95	3.1
	2.2	3	3.05
	2.35	3.13	3.28
	2.29	3.12	3.19	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.1
	2.23	2.98	3.15
	2.25	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.26)	3 ↑ (2.85)	3.12 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
40.4%

Draw
30.4%

Lusitano GC
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

32%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

32.1%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Atlético CP - Lusitano GC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitano GC (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Dias R. (G) 23. Almeida B. 7. Barandas M. 10. Caleb 18. Dias R. (C) 5. Durand V. 3. Gonzalez F. 4. Henriques D. 96. Herrera J. 9. Nicolas Souza 8. Sousa C.	22. Martins D. (G) 10. Aguas M. 11. Almara F. 8. Baptista T. 14. Cande B. 53. Carvalho E. 9. Lopes D. 37. Monteiro R. 23. Pereira F. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. (C)
Substitutes
79. Arezes D. 81. Bolivar J. (G) 11. Delcio 21. Garcia O. 25. Hernandez S. 60. Marques R. 19. Okoli F. 77. Santos R. 17. Silva D.	6. Andrade M. 30. Davou S. 29. Isnaba G. 99. Lucao 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 5. Palancha T. 21. Soares M. 15. Tipote L. 17. Vicente G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Nicolas Souza ⚽,
33', Santana C. 🟨,
37', 🟨,
42', Cande B. ↓, Davou S. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 2 - 0, Nicolas Souza ⚽,
54', Dias R. ↓, Marques R. ↑,
63', Almara F. ↓, Tipote L. ↑,
70', Pinto J. ↓, Soares M. ↑,
70', Aguas M. ↓, Lucao ↑,
73', Sousa C. ↓, Okoli F. ↑,
73', Caleb ↓, Delcio ↑,
82', Herrera J. ↓, Silva D. ↑,
83', Nicolas Souza ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
88', 🟨,
89', 3 - 0, Hernandez S. ⚽,
90+1', Monteiro R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Atlético CP will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético CP won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético CP - the odds 2.26 are the expected chance of winning is 40.45%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	União de Santarém - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético CP - Académica Coimbra	1:4 ✺
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTTLW
- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Amora - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
27.12.25	Lusitano GC - Fafe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
13.12.25	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	1:0
13.09.25	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
28.05.23	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	5:1
07.05.23	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.04.23	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	1:0
11.12.22	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	2:2

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