Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/8-finals

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play, Win Sports
Italy	Como TV
Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitano GC		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.7
	2.68	2.78	2.88
	2.69	2.93	2.94	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.75
	2.59	3.17	2.85	Watch
	2.71	2.75	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.61)	2.91 ↓ (3.09)	2.85 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
35.6%

Draw
31.9%

Fafe
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29.6%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

28.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Fafe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Lusitano GC - Fafe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martins D. (G) 53. Carvalho E. 4. Santana C. (C) 5. Palancha T. 25. Pinto J. 14. Cande B. 8. Baptista T. 30. Davou S. 80. Gomes A. 11. Almara F. 9. Lopes D.	71. Joao Goncalo (G) 26. Batista J. 4. Teixeira L. 5. Ze Oliveira 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 8. Braga V. 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 77. Carlos Daniel 10. Ka
Substitutes
6. Andrade M. 29. Isnaba G. 36. Lima T. 12. Marcelo Valverde (G) 37. Monteiro R. 24. Prego B. 7. Sequeira G. 18. Soares Mendonca D. 17. Vicente G.	20. Amorim J. 15. Breno 85. Castro D. 21. Davis SIlva 95. Fonseca T. 19. Leal J. 64. Martins T. (G) 78. Pinto G. 79. Teixeira T.
Coaches
Russiano P.	Ferreira M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Gomes A. 🟨,
43', Cande B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, Braga V. ⚽, Picas (A),
66', Ze Oliveira 🟨,
67', Gomes A. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
67', Cande B. ↓, Lima T. ↑,
70', Russiano P. 🟨,
73', Braga V. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
77', Carvalho E. ↓, Prego B. ↑,
77', Almara F. ↓, Sequeira G. ↑,
79', Prego B. 🟨,
81', Carlos Daniel ↓, Davis SIlva ↑,
82', Joao Goncalo 🟨,
87', Ka ↓, Fonseca T. ↑,
88', Palancha T. ↓, Monteiro R. ↑,
90+1', Davis SIlva 🟨,

Preview

Lusitano GC is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Fafe has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Lusitano GC has had a series of away games.

Fafe could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
21.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Lusitano GC	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Mafra - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLTW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
21.12.25	Amarante - Fafe	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Fafe - Trofense	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Marco 09 - Fafe	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Fafe - Paredes	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLTWW

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