Match Info

COLOMBIA: PRIMERA A - APERTURA - ROUND 14

Date: 17 April 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid (Neiva)

Referee: Ortiz A. (Col)


	Atlético Huila		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	3	Watch
	2.37	2.95	2.95
	2.43	3.1	2.85
	2.56	3.04	3.19
	2.4	2.88	3
	2.44	3.14	3.04
	2.4	3.05	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.8)	3.05 ↑ (2.94)	3 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Huila
38.3%

Draw
30.6%

Deportivo Pasto
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

31%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

31.7%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Huila has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Huila's performance.

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Pasto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Huila than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Huila that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Pasto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

Atlético Huila - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Atlético Huila will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Huila won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Deportivo Pasto could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Atlético Huila won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 28-28.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Huila won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 21-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Huila
Colombian Primera A
11.04.23	Atlético Huila - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Rionegro Águilas - Atlético Huila	2:1 ✺
02.04.23	Atlético Huila - Deportivo Cali	1:0 ✺
25.03.23	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Huila	2:1 ✺
20.03.23	Atlético Huila - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLWLW
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
13.04.23	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:0 ✺
10.04.23	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	3:1 ✺
31.03.23	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo Pereira	0:0 ✺
27.03.23	Jaguares de Córdoba - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
22.03.23	Millonarios - Deportivo Pasto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.10.21	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Huila	1:0
20.08.19	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Huila	4:0
22.02.19	Atlético Huila - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
22.10.18	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Huila	0:0
18.04.18	Atlético Huila - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
15.11.17	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Huila	4:0
09.05.17	Atlético Huila - Deportivo Pasto	0:1

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