Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportes Tolima		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.6
	1.92	3.35	3.95	Watch
	1.95	3.36	4.39
	1.93	3.3	4.13	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.92	3.22	4.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.35)	3.25 ↑ (3.06)	4.06 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
48.3%

Draw
28.7%

Deportivo Pasto
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

30.3%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30.5%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Tolima's performance.

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Pasto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Tolima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Pasto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neto Volpi (G) 28. Lopez E. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 17. Arrieta C. 24. Parra Osorio A. 80. Rovira B. 32. Guzman S. 18. Florez K. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 9. Sandoval L.	12. Banguera G. (G) 33. Garavito M. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 5. Gil N. (C) 21. Velasco E. 15. Mancilla H. 6. Caicedo J. 23. Goez Y. 27. Goyes H. 11. Estupinan A. 7. Perlaza J.
Substitutes
30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 7. Gonzalez J. 22. Marquinez L. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 33. Mosquera J. 15. Nieto J. 4. Pedrozo D. 19. Santiago J. 8. Valencia E.	17. Bernal J. 10. Chavez D. 29. Cordoba S. 16. Gil M. 1. Herrerin I. (G) 13. Martinez F. 18. Micolta Piedahita J. 19. Morelo W. 32. Pisano M.
Coaches
Gonzalez L.	Risueno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', Estupinan A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Sandoval L. ⚽,
45+1', Goez Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Arrieta C. ↓, Pedrozo D. ↑,
47', Garavito M. 🟨,
58', Florez K. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
58', Parra Osorio A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
64', Perlaza J. ↓, Cordoba S. ↑,
71', Guzman S. ↓, Nieto J. ↑,
75', Mancilla H. ↓, Chavez D. ↑,
75', Garavito M. ↓, Micolta Piedahita J. ↑,
75', Estupinan A. ↓, Gil M. ↑,
80', Torres Patino J. P. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
89', Goez Y. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 1.

Deportes Tolima is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Deportivo Pasto has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Deportivo Pasto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Deportes Tolima has had a series of home games.

Deportes Tolima could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:17. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Tolima won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 1.5:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
18	Dep. Pasto	12	2	3	7	9:18	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.45%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Deportivo Pasto - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.24%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Coquimbo Unido	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pereira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTWLW
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	4:3 ✺
23.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Deportivo Pasto	2:3 ✺
10.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
10.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:0
12.07.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	3:2
27.01.25	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
Colombian Copa
02.10.24	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:1
17.09.24	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	1:2
Colombian Primera A
23.07.24	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pasto	2:1
26.01.24	Deportivo Pasto - Deportes Tolima	1:4

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