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Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 20
  • Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Atlético Madrid Deportivo Alavés
    Atlético Madrid Deportivo Alavés
    1 X 2
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    (Initially)    		 1.37 ↑
    (1.35)    		 4.9 ↑
    (4.78)    		 8.96 ↓
    (9.47)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Atlético Madrid
    69.8%    		Draw
    19.5%    		Deportivo Alavés
    10.7%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    70.2% 19.8% 10%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    72.6% 19.1% 9.7%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
  • Deportivo Alavés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (-1%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    96.6% 1.7% 1.7%
    banner

    Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • AH -1.5 - Atlético (2.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (56 of 58 users predict this - 96.55%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 91.85% – 100%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 18 - 94.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
    •
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    13. SloveniaOblak J. (C)
    14. SpainLlorente M.
    18. SpainPubill M.
    17. SlovakiaHancko D.
      3. ItalyRuggeri M.
    20. ArgentinaSimeone G.
      8. SpainBarrios P.
      5. USACardoso J.
    11. ArgentinaAlmada T.
    19. ArgentinaAlvarez J.
      9. NorwaySorloth A.
    		  1. SpainSivera A. (G)
    17. SpainJonny Otto
    14. ArgentinaTenaglia N.
      5. SpainPacheco J.
    24. SpainParada V.
      8. SpainBlanco A. (C)
      7. SpainVicente C.
    18. SpainGuridi J.
    19. SpainIbanez P.
    10. SpainAlena C.
    11. SpainMartinez T.
    Substitutes
    10. SpainBaena A.
    29. SpainBelaid R.
    31. SpainEsquivel S. (G)
      2. UruguayGimenez J. M.
      7. FranceGriezmann A.
      6. SpainKoke
    24. SpainLe Normand R.
    16. ArgentinaMolina N.
    27. SpainMonserrate J.
      1. ArgentinaMusso J. (G)
    		15. ArgentinaBoye L.
    20. BrazilCalebe
    13. SpainFernandez R. (G)
      6. SpainGuevara A.
    34. SpainManas A.
    23. UruguayProtesoni C.
    21. AlgeriaRebbach A.
      4. SpainSuarez D.
      3. MoroccoYusi
    Coaches
         ArgentinaSimeone D.
    		     ArgentinaCoudet E.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 6', Ibanez P. 🟨,
    • 27', Cardoso J. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 48', 1 - 0, Sorloth A. ⚽, Barrios P. (A),
    • 54', Guridi J. ↓, Suarez D. ↑,
    • 55', Ibanez P. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
    • 55', Martinez T. ↓, Boye L. ↑,
    • 62', Alvarez J. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
    • 62', Simeone G. ↓, Koke ↑,
    • 62', Almada T. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
    • 69', Alena C. ↓, Rebbach A. ↑,
    • 78', Cardoso J. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
    • 81', Blanco A. ↓, Manas A. ↑,
    • 86', Sorloth A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,

    Preview

  • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 2.
  • Atlético is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
  • Alavés has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Recently, Atlético has had a series of away games.
  • In this match, Atlético is the clear favorite.
  • There will not play in Atlético: Lenglet C. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Alavés: Garces F. (Suspended)
  • There are questionable in Alavés: Boye L. (Muscle Injury) Diarra M. (Coach's decision) Diaz M. (Coach's decision) Maras N. (Coach's decision)
  • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:11. (average 1.5:0.6).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 2:0.6).
    • banner

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Atl. Madrid: 2.56% Alaves: 0.47%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    2Alaves431010:3710
    6Atl. Madrid42117:617

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Atlético Madrid
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    13.01.26 Deportivo A Coruña - Atlético Madrid 0:1 ✺
    Spanish Supercopa
    08.01.26 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.01.26 Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid 1:1 ✺
    21.12.25 Girona - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    17.12.25 Atlético Baleares - Atlético Madrid 2:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3
    WLTWW
    - Deportivo Alavés
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    14.01.26 Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano 2:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.01.26 Villarreal - Deportivo Alavés 3:1 ✺
    04.01.26 Deportivo Alavés - Real Oviedo 1:1 ✺
    20.12.25 Osasuna - Deportivo Alavés 3:0 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    17.12.25 Deportivo Alavés - Sevilla 1:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5
    WLTLW
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    30.08.25 Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    03.05.25 Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid 0:0
    23.11.24 Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés 2:1
    21.04.24 Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid 2:0
    29.10.23 Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés 2:1
    02.04.22 Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés 4:1
    25.09.21 Deportivo Alavés - Atlético Madrid 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Atlético Madrid
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.09.26 Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    09.09.26 Liverpool - Atlético Madrid ✺
    - Deportivo Alavés
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.09.26 Racing Santander - Deportivo Alavés ✺

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