The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético Nacional 48.1%
Draw 28.6%
Atlético Bucaramanga 23.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
55.9%
25.6%
18.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58.1%
24.6%
17.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Nacional's form might have worsened.
Atlético Bucaramanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+10%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Bucaramanga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga Predictions
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(11 of 11 users predict this - 100%). Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ospina D. (G) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 16. Tesillo W. 20. Casco M. 21. Campuzano J. 8. Uribe M. 18. Bello E. 10. Cardona E. 19. Rengifo J. 17. Arango C.
12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G) 19. Gutierrez A. 2. Mena J. (C) 3. Rea M. 8. Hinestroza F. 20. Zarate A. 21. Charrupi F. 15. Batalla E. 10. Sambueza F. 7. Londono K. 9. Caicedo B.
Substitutes
27. Asprilla D. 15. Castillo H. (G) 4. Haydar C. 14. Marin F. 9. Morelos A. 7. Moreno M. 31. Rios X. 29. Sarmiento A. 33. Velasquez S.
18. Alba I. 6. Charrupi G. 28. Flores L. 4. Garcia J. 16. Matheus L. (G) 13. Medina G. 14. Mosquera J. 11. Salazar J.
Coaches
Arias D.
Perea W.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Rengifo J. 🟨,
42', Cardona E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Roman A. ⚽, Arango C. (A),
62', Londono K. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
70', Bello E. ↓, Sarmiento A. ↑,
70', Arango C. ↓, Morelos A. ↑,
70', Batalla E. ↓, Salazar J. ↑,
71', Charrupi F. ↓, Charrupi G. ↑,
81', Cardona E. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
84', Sambueza F. 🟨,
87', Uribe M. ↓, Marin F. ↑,
87', Rengifo J. ↓, Rios X. ↑,
89', 2 - 0, Moreno M. ⚽, Campuzano J. (A),
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 10).
Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 1.
Atlético Nacional is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Bucaramanga has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Atlético Nacional is the team to beat.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético Nacional won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.2:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Nacional won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Atl. Nacional
11
7
2
2
21:10
11
23
4
Bucaramanga
11
6
5
0
20:10
10
23
Last Results with these Odds
Atlético Nacional - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.85%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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Ospina D. (G) 
Casco M. 
Bello E. 
Rea M. 
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