The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Pasto 31.2%
Draw 29.1%
Atlético Nacional 39.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.1%
28.1%
43.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.2%
28.2%
43.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
70%
20%
10%
Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional Predictions
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%). Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Pasto: 41.6% – 98.4%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Herrerin I. (G) 33. Garavito M. 2. Torijano F. (C) 5. Gil N. 21. Velasco E. 23. Goez Y. 6. Caicedo J. 27. Goyes H. 10. Chavez D. 11. Estupinan A. 7. Perlaza J.
15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 4. Haydar C. 3. Parra N. 20. Casco M. 8. Uribe M. 10. Cardona E. (C) 18. Bello E. 19. Rengifo J. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
12. Banguera G. (G) 17. Bernal J. 15. Mancilla H. 19. Morelo W. 32. Pisano M. 9. Preciado P. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 22. Tolosa Y. 26. Valencia H.
17. Arango C. 27. Asprilla D. 44. Catano K. (G) 35. Lozano M. 14. Marin F. 7. Moreno M. 31. Rios X. 5. Uribe C. 33. Velasquez S.
Coaches
Risueno J.
Arias D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
18', Parra N. 🟨,
20', Casco M. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Morelos A. ⚽, Bello E. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Estupinan A. ⚽,
32', Gil N. 🟨,
44', Caicedo J. 🟨,
45+2', Cardona E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Estupinan A. 🟨,
59', Roman A. 🟨,
63', Morelos A. 🟨,
65', Perlaza J. ↓, Serje Orozco E. C. ↑,
65', Chavez D. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
67', Sarmiento A. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
73', Morelos A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
76', Caicedo J. ↓, Pisano M. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Rengifo J. ⚽, Cardona E. (A),
84', Garavito M. ↓, Preciado P. ↑,
87', Cardona E. ↓, Marin F. ↑,
87', Bello E. ↓, Arango C. ↑,
88', Rengifo J. 🟨,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 0.
Deportivo Pasto is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
In recent matches, Atlético Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Atlético Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:30. (average 0.7:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Atl. Nacional
11
7
2
2
21:10
11
23
18
Dep. Pasto
12
2
3
7
9:18
-9
9
Last Results with these Odds
Atlético Nacional - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.79%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.
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Herrerin I. (G) 
Garavito M. 
Chavez D. 
Bello E. 
Bernal J. 
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