Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Palmar (Sanlúcar de Barrameda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Atlético Sanluqueño		Cartagena

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.7
	2.52	2.98	2.82
	2.66	2.99	2.91
	1.51	4.11	5.86	Watch
	2.55	3.12	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.54)	3.24 ↑ (3.05)	3.42 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Sanluqueño
41.6%

Draw
30%

Cartagena
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

30%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

31.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Sanluqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Sanluqueño's performance.

Cartagena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cartagena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Sanluqueño than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Atlético Sanluqueño - Cartagena Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Cartagena (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cartagena (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kudakovskiy P. (G) 2. Sola Villalba R. 5. Trapero 4. Castellano A. 3. Cabrera J. 17. Rodri 21. Satoca D. 6. Ronald 16. Tounkara N. 9. Zequi 19. Juarez A.	13. Garcia L. (G) 18. Perejon D. 4. Serrano R. 5. Baz I. 22. Martinez N. 20. Gomez D. 6. Fidalgo A. 11. Redondo L. 10. Larrea P. 17. Sanchez K. 19. Chiki
Substitutes
30. Barea P. 18. Diallo B. 13. Dominguez R. (G) 8. Gallastegui J. 27. Gonzalez I. 7. Kikin 11. Lorenzo O. 26. Morales L. 28. Moreno F. 12. Rodriguez S. 25. Valencia F. (G)	14. Alcaniz E. 7. Calderon C. 8. De Blasis P. 3. Jimenez N. 2. Jurado M. 16. Martin A. 1. Martinez I. (G) 9. Ortuno A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Juarez A. ⚽,
17', 2 - 0, Castellano A. ⚽,
23', 🟨,
25', Larrea P. 🟥,
41', Ronald ↓, Gallastegui J. ↑,
42', 🟨,
45+4', 🟨,
45+4', 3 - 0, Zequi (Pen),
45+5', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gomez D. ↓, De Blasis P. ↑,
46', Perejon D. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
46', Baz I. ↓, Alcaniz E. ↑,
62', Rodri ↓, Morales L. ↑,
62', Juarez A. ↓, Lorenzo O. ↑,
80', Satoca D. ↓, Moreno F. ↑,
80', Zequi ↓, Kikin ↑,
81', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sanluqueño won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Sanluqueño may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Sanluqueño won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:15. (average 0.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sanluqueño won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Cartagena - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.13%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Sanluqueño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.09.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Teruel	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Atlético Sanluqueño	1:3 ✺
07.09.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Sabadell	2:2 ✺
01.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Antoniano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TWTTW
- FC Cartagena
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
24.09.25	Sabadell - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Cartagena - Hércules	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Cartagena - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Antequera - Cartagena	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.25	Cartagena - Eldense	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
02.02.20	Cartagena - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:0
15.09.19	Atlético Sanluqueño - Cartagena	0:1
16.03.19	Atlético Sanluqueño - Cartagena	3:1
28.10.18	Cartagena - Atlético Sanluqueño	3:0
08.04.17	Atlético Sanluqueño - Cartagena	0:1
13.11.16	Cartagena - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:0
09.03.14	Cartagena - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:1

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