Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Monumental (Rafaela)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Atlético de Rafaela		Sarmiento de La Banda

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3
	2.31	2.95	3.05	Watch
	2.66	2.27	3.46
	2.6	2.65	3.29	Watch
	2.61	2.92	2.92	Watch
	2.5	2.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.12)	2.73 ↓ (3.2)	3.15 ↓ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Rafaela
37.1%

Draw
33.7%

Sarmiento de La Banda
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.4%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético de Rafaela's form might have worsened.

Sarmiento de La Banda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético de Rafaela, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de La Banda than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Atlético de Rafaela - Sarmiento de La Banda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilbao E. (G) 4. Martinez M. 2. Fernandez G. 6. Utrera N. 3. Wattier E. 8. Capurro J. 5. Soloa F. 10. Affranchino F. 11. Pastorelli A. 7. Alfano A. 9. Albertengo L.	1. Mendonca J. (G) 4. Solveyra A. 2. Herrera R. 6. Guzman G. 3. Ochoa A. 8. Triverio G. 5. Juarez N. 10. Lopez P. 11. Garzon I. 7. Speck N. 9. Vega C.
Substitutes
12. Bergia M. (G) 18. Castro M. 14. Jaime D. 16. Marchiori T. 17. Ontivero L. 13. Stizza J. 15. Torres G.	12. Acuna F. (G) 18. Arias J. 17. Bayk J. 13. Giordano A. 16. Mendoza S. 15. Roldan I. 14. Sanchez Arriola M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Lopez P. ⚽,
41', Lopez P. 🟨,
41', Fernandez G. 🟨,
41', Garzon I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 1, Albertengo L. ⚽,
59', Speck N. ↓, Roldan I. ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Albertengo L. ⚽,
64', Martinez M. 🟨,
66', Martinez M. ↓, Stizza J. ↑,
69', Alfano A. ↓, Castro M. ↑,
70', Vega C. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
79', Juarez N. ↓, Bayk J. ↑,
79', Triverio G. ↓, Sanchez Arriola M. ↑,
80', Pastorelli A. 🟨,
88', Bilbao E. 🟨,
89', Albertengo L. ↓, Marchiori T. ↑,
89', Pastorelli A. ↓, Jaime D. ↑,
89', Wattier E. ↓, Torres G. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: )).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Atlético Rafaela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlético Rafaela will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.04.25	Bartolomé Mitre - Atlético de Rafaela	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Boca Unidos	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Atlético de Rafaela	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Sarmiento de Resistencia	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Crucero del Norte - Atlético de Rafaela	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWTWL
- Sarmiento de La Banda
Argentinian Torneo Federal
18.04.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Bartolomé Mitre	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Boca Unidos - Sarmiento de La Banda	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - General San Martín de Formosa	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:3 ✺
23.03.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Crucero del Norte	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWW

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