Match Info

Torneo Federal - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: 17 De Octubre (Formosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 2
Ecuador	DSports 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 2
Venezuela	DSports 2


	General San Martín de Formosa		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	2.78	2.78	2.58
	2.72	2.77	2.57
	2.83	2.85	2.73	Watch
	2.8	2.63	2.63
	2.73	2.74	2.62
	2.75	2.83	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (3.67)	2.77 ↓ (2.91)	2.62 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

General San Martín de Formosa
32.7%

Draw
32.7%

Atlético de Rafaela
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

31.9%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

30.5%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

General San Martín de Formosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in General San Martín de Formosa's performance.

Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético de Rafaela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for General San Martín de Formosa than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with General San Martín de Formosa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético de Rafaela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

General San Martín de Formosa - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Humeler K. (G) 4. Alderete R. P. 5. Bobadilla M. 11. Chiquichano O. 2. Finardi B. 3. Griego A. 10. Nunez G. 6. Serrano R. 9. Siergiejuk M. 8. Tapia R. 7. Vicedo M.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 10. Affranchino F. 9. Albertengo L. 8. Capurro J. 2. Fernandez G. 7. Leineker C. 11. Marchiori T. 4. Martinez M. 6. Ponce F. 5. Soloa F. 3. Wuattier E. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Albertengo L. ⚽,
37', Capurro J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', 🟨,
63', 🟨,
77', 🟨,
83', 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ))

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Atlético Rafaela could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, San Martín Formosa won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, San Martín Formosa won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- General San Martín de Formosa
Argentinian Torneo Federal
30.11.25	General San Martín de Formosa - 9 de Julio	4:1 ✺
23.11.25	9 de Julio - General San Martín de Formosa	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Atenas Río Cuarto	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atenas Río Cuarto - General San Martín de Formosa	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Costa Brava	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWWW
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
30.11.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Douglas Haig	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
15.11.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Guillermo Brown	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Guillermo Brown - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Ciudad de Bolívar - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.07.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0
13.06.25	Atlético de Rafaela - General San Martín de Formosa	1:1
13.04.25	General San Martín de Formosa - Atlético de Rafaela	1:1

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