Match Info

MLS

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)

Referee: De Oliveira M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	FOX Network, FOX One, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Atlanta United		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.52	3.45	2.72
	2.56	3.55	2.77
	2.33	3.44	3.01	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.6
	2.59	3.5	2.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.81)	3.44 ↑ (3.38)	2.77 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlanta United
38.1%

Draw
27.6%

Philadelphia Union
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

28.1%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlanta United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Philadelphia Union has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlanta United than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlanta United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Philadelphia Union could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Atlanta (2.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Atlanta (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlanta (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hoyos L. (G) 55. Jacob T. 5. Gregersen S. 4. Mihaj E. 3. Baez E. 48. Sanchez C. 8. Muyumba T. 88. Galarza M. 59. Miranchuk Al. 9. Latte Lath E. 10. Almiron M. (C)	18. Blake A. (C) 39. Westfield F. 26. Harriel N. 29. Makhanya O. 20. Ndinga P. 10. Iloski M. 21. Jean Jacques D. 4. Lukic J. 19. Vassilev I. 37. Korzeniowski S. 9. Damiani B.
Substitutes
7. Alzate S. 18. Amador P. 47. Edwards M. 2. Hernandez R. 42. Hibbert J. (G) 11. Lobjanidze S. 22. Picault F. 19. Sergio Santos 30. Togashi C.	23. Alladoh E. 28. Anello A. 11. Bedoya A. 16. Bender B. 8. Bueno J. 2. Martinez G. 76. Rick A. (G) 5. Sery Larsen J. 6. Sullivan C.
Coaches
Martino G.	Carnell B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Latte Lath E. ⚽, Almiron M. (A), Baez E. (A2)
41', Baez E. 🟨,
43', Iloski M. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', Gregersen S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 2 - 0, Jacob T. ⚽, Almiron M. (A), Galarza M. (A2)
49', Galarza M. 🟨,
57', Korzeniowski S. ↓, Alladoh E. ↑,
57', Vassilev I. ↓, Anello A. ↑,
57', Iloski M. ↓, Bedoya A. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Miranchuk Al. ⚽, Almiron M. (A), Latte Lath E. (A2)
69', Latte Lath E. ↓, Picault F. ↑,
69', Galarza M. ↓, Alzate S. ↑,
77', Ndinga P. ↓, Sery Larsen J. ↑,
78', Miranchuk Al. ↓, Lobjanidze S. ↑,
81', Jean Jacques D. ↓, Bueno J. ↑,
85', Jacob T. 🟨,
87', 3 - 1, Anello A. ⚽, Westfield F. (A), Bedoya A. (A2)
88', Sanchez C. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
88', Almiron M. ↓, Amador P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 0.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Philadelphia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Philadelphia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Atlanta: Fortune A. (Foot Injury) Reilly W. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Philadelphia: Davis III E. (Thigh Injury) Sullivan Q. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:28. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlanta won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 1.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlanta United
MLS
07.03.26	Atlanta United - Real Salt Lake	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Atlanta United	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cincinnati - Atlanta United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.02.26	Atlanta United - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Atlanta United - Lexington	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLTW
- Philadelphia Union
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.03.26	Philadelphia Union - Club América	0:1 ✺
MLS
07.03.26	Philadelphia Union - San Jose Earthquakes	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Philadelphia Union - New York City	1:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
26.02.26	Philadelphia Union - Defence Force	7:0 ✺
MLS
21.02.26	DC United - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
17.05.25	Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union	0:1
19.04.25	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	3:0
28.09.24	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	1:1
14.04.24	Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union	2:2
04.10.23	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	3:2
02.07.23	Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union	2:0
17.09.22	Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union	0:0

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