Match Info

MLS

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester, PA)

Referee: Penso C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Philadelphia Union		New York City

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.25	3.4	Watch
	1.83	3.6	4
	2.22	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.24	3.45	3.47
	2.2	3.34	3.35	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.25
	2.26	3.38	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.82)	3.34 ↓ (3.73)	3.46 ↓ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Union
44.2%

Draw
28.4%

New York City
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.3%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Union has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Philadelphia Union's form might have worsened.

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Philadelphia Union - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Philadelphia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). NY City will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philadelphia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Philadelphia Union will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Blake A. (G) 39. Westfield F. 5. Sery Larsen J. 29. Makhanya O. 26. Harriel N. 28. Anello A. 21. Jean Jacques D. 4. Lukic J. 19. Vassilev I. 9. Damiani B. 10. Iloski M.	49. Freese M. (G) 24. Gray T. 13. Thiago Martins 34. Raul Gustavo 22. O'Toole K. 21. O'Neill A. 55. Parks K. 10. Moralez M. 7. Mercau N. 17. Wolf H. 26. Ojeda A.
Substitutes
11. Bedoya A. 16. Bender B. 8. Bueno J. 37. Korzeniowski S. 2. Martinez G. 55. Olivas S. 14. Rafanello J. 76. Rick A. (G) 6. Sullivan C.	38. Baiera D. 29. Carrizo M. 2. Cavallo N. 99. Reid S. 30. Romero T. (G) 32. Shore J. 11. Talles Magno 19. Tanasijevic S. 5. Trewin K.
Coaches
Carnell B.	Jansen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Gray T. 🟨,
23', Makhanya O. 🟨,
36', 0 - 1, Wolf H. ⚽,
39', O'Neill A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Westfield F. ↓, Bender B. ↑,
59', Anello A. ↓, Korzeniowski S. ↑,
74', Moralez M. ↓, Reid S. ↑,
83', Wolf H. ↓, Baiera D. ↑,
83', Iloski M. ↓, Sullivan C. ↑,
83', Damiani B. ↓, Olivas S. ↑,
83', O'Neill A. ↓, Trewin K. ↑,
89', 1 - 1, Vassilev I. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Mercau N. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
90+2', Makhanya O. 🟨,
90+3', Vassilev I. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
90+5', Sery Larsen J. 🟨,
90+9', 1 - 2, Gray T. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2.

Philadelphia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

NY City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Philadelphia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Philadelphia: Alladoh E. (Red Card) Davis III E. (Thigh Injury) Sullivan Q. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in NY City: Jones M. (Broken Leg) Martinez A. (Knee Injury) Perea A. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 30:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Philadelphia won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.3:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Union
CONCACAF Champions Cup
26.02.26	Philadelphia Union - Defence Force	7:0 ✺
MLS
21.02.26	DC United - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.02.26	Defence Force - Philadelphia Union	0:5 ✺
Club Friendly
29.01.26	Philadelphia Union - Budućnost Podgorica	3:0 ✺
23.01.26	Nordsjælland - Philadelphia Union	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLWWL
- New York City FC
MLS
22.02.26	Los Angeles Galaxy - New York City	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.02.26	San Jose Earthquakes - New York City	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Los Angeles - New York City	1:1 ✺
MLS
29.11.25	Inter Miami - New York City	5:1 ✺
23.11.25	Philadelphia Union - New York City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
23.11.25	Philadelphia Union - New York City	0:1
04.10.25	Philadelphia Union - New York City	1:0
12.04.25	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:0
18.09.24	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:5
15.05.24	Philadelphia Union - New York City	1:2
15.07.23	Philadelphia Union - New York City	2:1
27.05.23	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:3

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