Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Agustín Díaz (Zacatepec)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Hi! Sports


	Atlante		Leones Negros UdeG

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.85	4.65
	1.67	4.05	4.95
	1.64	3.82	4.79	Watch
	1.8	3.65	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	3.84 ↓ (3.94)	4.65 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlante
55.6%

Draw
24.3%

Leones Negros UdeG
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.5%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

22.9%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 19. Gonzalez S. 21. Ibarra J. 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F. 20. Tovar J.	30. Lopez F. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 8. Fierro C. 4. Ledesma A. 13. Lopez R. 18. Munoz D. 7. Rivera E. 2. Sanchez J. 5. Torres U. 87. Valenzuela M.
Substitutes
1. Barragan R. (G) 33. Basulto L. 31. Bello B. 11. Coubert R. 3. Cruz D. 30. Espinoza E. 7. Garcia M. 8. Gonzalez R. 17. Mejia L. 9. Wlk A.	10. Brigido J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 3. Flores L. 88. Gonzalez O. 81. Madrigal K. 82. Meza U. 11. Perez J.
Coaches
Fuentes M.	Sosa L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Aguayo J. 🟥,
38', 1 - 0, Reyes F. ⚽,
40', Carrera J. N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fierro C. ↓, Camacho Lastra R. E. ↑,
46', Rivera E. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
46', Carrera J. N. ↓, Basulto L. ↑,
61', Tovar J. ↓, Cruz D. ↑,
61', Calzadilla L. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
61', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Madrigal K. ↑,
71', Valenzuela M. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
71', Ibarra J. ↓, Wlk A. ↑,
72', Gonzalez S. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
88', Jimenez E. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Atlante is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:15. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlante won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 19:4. (average 1.7:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlante - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.05%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Atlante - Irapuato	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlante	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWLWL
- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.09.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
15.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.03.25	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	2:1
22.09.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	3:3
12.05.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	1:2
08.05.24	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
21.01.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	0:0
25.11.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante	0:1
22.11.23	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	3:1

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