Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)

Referee: Montes Santos J. O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Leones Negros UdeG

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.25	3.25
	2.02	3.45	3.25
	2.04	3.79	3.44
	2	3.25	3.3
	1.99	3.58	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.02)	3.46 ↑ (3.41)	3.34 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
45.9%

Draw
26.6%

Leones Negros UdeG
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

27.2%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

25.9%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Leones Negros UdeG (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gutierrez G. (C) 22. Aguilar D. 24. Cardona U. 28. Cerda J. 5. Chavez A. 27. Garcia B. D. O. 10. Munoz Z. 2. Ocon L. 11. Reyes J. 20. Samano L. 23. Venegas J.	30. Lopez F. (G) 24. Aguayo J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 20. Flores B. 4. Ledesma A. (C) 13. Lopez R. 18. Munoz D. 7. Rivera E. 2. Sanchez J. 5. Torres U.
Substitutes
13. Aguilar M. 19. Ballesteros O. 26. Dominguez I. 18. Gomez J. 17. Lorona L. 9. Machado J. 8. Montano T. 29. Quiroz A. (G) 6. Ruiz A. 25. Soto A.	10. Brigido J. 25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 15. Carreon A. 8. Fierro C. 3. Flores L. 88. Gonzalez O. 92. Jimenez B. 81. Madrigal K. 11. Perez J. 87. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Real H.	Sosa L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Sanchez J. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Camacho Lastra R. E. ⚽, Lopez R. (A),
31', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
33', Aguilar D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Munoz Z. ↓, Aguilar M. ↑,
46', Chavez A. ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
49', Torres U. 🟨,
58', Lopez R. 🟨,
62', Reyes J. ↓, Ballesteros O. ↑,
63', Lopez R. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
63', Rivera E. ↓, Fierro C. ↑,
69', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
74', Garcia B. D. O. ↓, Lorona L. ↑,
74', Cardona U. ↓, Machado J. ↑,
76', Flores B. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
76', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Ocon L. ⚽, Ballesteros O. (A),
90+3', Ballesteros O. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 1.

Tepatitlán is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leones Negros UdeG has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leones Negros UdeG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tepatitlán is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:4 ✺
22.08.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Tapatío - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:3 ✺
09.08.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWTT
- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
15.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Irapuato	4:2 ✺
02.08.25	Jaiba Brava - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.04.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:1
24.04.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	2:1
28.02.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	1:1
15.09.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
10.04.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:2
12.08.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	0:0
27.04.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Leones Negros UdeG	0:1

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