Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Referee: Ramirez Gutierrez E. A. (Mex)


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Atlante

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4	3.8	1.63
	4.25	4.05	1.65
	4.3	4.34	1.7
	8.31	4.72	1.36	Watch
	4.5	3.84	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.07 ↑ (4.23)	4.15 ↑ (4.05)	1.6 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18.6%

Draw
22.7%

Atlante
58.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

22.8%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

21.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fernandez Sanchez J. E. (G) 4. Alvarez K. (C) 6. Arellano A. 177. Bustos J. 10. Carballo E. 15. Lopez E. 11. Mascorro H. 29. Meza S. 8. Morales F. 5. Vazquez Garza H. A. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 15. Cantu E. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 21. Ibarra J. (C) 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F. 9. Wlk A.
Substitutes
25. Andrey Marcos 1. Cruz J. 175. Gallinar S. 35. Gonzalez Arriaga O. A. (G) 3. Justo A. 7. Lopez D. 20. Mendoza Cendejas E. J. 17. Nunez D. 33. Olaguez E. 24. Rojas D.	1. Barragan R. (G) 31. Bello B. 6. Carrera J. N. 11. Coubert R. 30. Espinoza E. 7. Garcia M. 8. Gonzalez R. 19. Gonzalez S. 17. Mejia L. 20. Tovar J.
Coaches
Alvarado A.	Fuentes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Arellano A. 🟥,
13', Fernandez Sanchez J. E. 🟨,
31', Cantu E. 🟨,
45+9', Alvarez K. 🟨,
45+9', Lopez E. 🟨,
45+10', Bustos J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Mascorro H. ↓, Andrey Marcos ↑,
46', Bustos J. ↓, Olaguez E. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Garcia Pardo M. ⚽, Escobar A. (A),
53', Wlk A. 🟨,
55', Cantu E. 🟨,
58', Calzadilla L. ↓, Carrera J. N. ↑,
72', Vazquez Garza H. A. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
72', Wlk A. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
72', Cruz D. ↓, Tovar J. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Gonzalez S. ⚽, Carrera J. N. (A),
81', Garcia Pardo M. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
81', Ibarra J. ↓, Mejia L. ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Mejia L. ⚽, Tovar J. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 2.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Atlante has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlante may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Atlante is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:30. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.25	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Venados	4:5 ✺
23.08.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:2 ✺
15.08.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cancún	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Atlético Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LLTLL
- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
29.08.25	Tapatío - Atlante	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Atlante - Irapuato	4:0 ✺
16.08.25	Jaiba Brava - Atlante	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Atlante - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.02.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	2:0
30.08.24	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	6:0
31.01.24	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2
31.10.23	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3
05.01.23	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:0
14.09.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	2:2
29.03.22	Atlante - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:0

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