The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Leones Negros UdeG 41.5%
Draw 25.4%
Atlético La Paz 33.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46%
25.4%
28.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.7%
26.9%
27%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+7.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético La Paz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético La Paz Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 24. Aguayo J. 5. Torres U. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 21. Robles C. 16. Del Aguila Y. 77. Alonzo J. 5. Torres E. 12. Millan O. 25. Illescas F. 30. Robles A. 10. Barragan M. (C) 19. Jaimes U.
Substitutes
168. Alvarado M. 15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 3. Flores L. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 27. Meza U. 167. Nuno M. 11. Perez J. 31. Valenzuela M.
3. Alvarado D. 22. Daccarett J. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 20. Garcia M. 6. Hernandez D. 18. Larios I. 15. Torres H. 2. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Sosa A.
Castillo H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Brigido J. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
34', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
37', Robles C. 🟨,
45+1', Escalante J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Millan O. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Barragan M. ⚽, Robles C. (A),
60', Marchand J. 🟨,
60', Brigido J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
60', Marchand J. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
63', Alonzo J. 🟨,
72', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Valenzuela M. ↑,
72', Gil O. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
73', Jaimes U. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
73', Illescas F. ↓, Torres H. ↑,
78', Valenzuela M. 🟨,
80', Robles A. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Torres H. ⚽, Robles C. (A),
82', 2 - 2, Robles C. (Own goal),
83', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
90+3', Perez J. 🟨,
Preview
The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2.
Leones Negros UdeG is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Atlético La Paz is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Leones Negros UdeG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Leones Negros UdeG will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1.7:2.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 2.6:2).
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Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 
Gil O. 
Alvarado M. 
Castillo H. 
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