Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jalisco (Guadalajara)

Referee: Armenta J. E. H. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports


	Leones Negros UdeG		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.2	5.5
	1.5	4.25	5.3
	1.53	4.43	5.56
	1.44	4	5.8
	1.57	4.18	5.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)	4.21 ↓ (4.33)	5.48 ↓ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones Negros UdeG
61.4%

Draw
21.8%

Tlaxcala
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

21.3%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Leones Negros UdeG (1.90) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Leones Negros UdeG (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Leones Negros UdeG will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leones Negros UdeG will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG (votes: 15 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Lopez F. (G) 10. Brigido J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 20. Flores B. 4. Ledesma A. (C) 13. Lopez R. 18. Munoz D. 7. Rivera E. 2. Sanchez J. 5. Torres U.	13. Mendoza H. (G) 9. Christian 5. Esnaider F. 6. Gonzalez Martinez J. D. 2. Gonzalez P. 12. Lazaro J. 8. Plascencia F. (C) 25. Rojas H. 11. Salomon O. 31. Silva J. 15. Tejeda D.
Substitutes
24. Aguayo J. 84. Barba T. 25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 15. Carreon A. 3. Flores L. 92. Jimenez B. 81. Madrigal K. 11. Perez J. 86. Torres D. 87. Valenzuela M.	28. Becerra L. 18. Buganza F. 4. Fabio Erins 33. Martinez D. 34. Morales A. 30. Nuno A. (G) 27. Partida F. 24. Robles E. 16. Solis E. 21. Zaragoza A.
Coaches
Sosa L.	Fabian M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Lazaro J. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Rivera E. (Pen),
41', Silva J. 🟨,
44', Camacho Lastra R. E. 🟨,
45', Ledesma A. 🟨,
45+11', Esnaider F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', Rivera E. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
58', Brigido J. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
60', Gonzalez P. ↓, Solis E. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Munoz D. ⚽,
72', Salomon O. ↓, Partida F. ↑,
72', Tejeda D. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
72', Esnaider F. ↓, Buganza F. ↑,
81', Gonzalez Martinez J. D. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
83', Solis E. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Robles E. ⚽, Christian (A),
87', 2 - 2, Plascencia F. ⚽, Zaragoza A. (A),
90+4', Plascencia F. 🟨,
90+5', Lopez R. ↓, Barba T. ↑,
90+6', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
90+13', Mendoza H. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 5.

Leones Negros UdeG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leones Negros UdeG is a strong favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 23:8. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 2.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
15.08.25	Correcaminos UAT - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Irapuato	4:2 ✺
02.08.25	Jaiba Brava - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
07.06.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWWLL
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
24.08.25	Tlaxcala - Correcaminos UAT	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Irapuato - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Cancún - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
03.08.25	Tlaxcala - Mineros de Zacatecas	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.02.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	5:1
17.08.24	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2
23.03.24	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	0:4
29.10.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	2:1
31.03.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Tlaxcala	3:0
31.08.22	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
20.03.22	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2

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