Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Agustín Díaz (Zacatepec)

Referee: Cruz Garatachea F. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Hi! Sports


	Atlante		Venados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.33	4.95	7.5
	1.33	5.3	8.46
	1.43	4.55	6.57	Watch
	1.38	5.25	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.42)	5.01 ↑ (4.56)	7.26 ↑ (6.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlante
68.4%

Draw
18.7%

Venados
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

20.2%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.2%

19.2%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Atlante - Venados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 19. Gonzalez S. 21. Ibarra J. (C) 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F.	28. Delgado A. (G) 18. Amador K. 7. Calero J. 2. Casillas J. 19. Catalan A. 8. Dominguez A. 23. Galvan P. 10. Guzman W. 11. Madrid W. 25. Trejo Castro M. A. 33. Vidrio N. (C)
Substitutes
1. Barragan R. (G) 33. Basulto L. 31. Bello B. 18. Bermudez C. 15. Cantu E. 11. Coubert R. 30. Espinoza E. 7. Garcia M. 8. Gonzalez R. 20. Tovar J.	12. Acosta C. 143. Benitez S. 16. Espinosa E. 4. Grijalva A. 3. Levin J. 21. Lopez C. 6. Lopez F. 5. Miranda J. 15. Navarrete D. 1. Reyes D. (G)
Coaches
Fuentes M.	Garcia I. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Trejo Castro M. A. 🟨,
39', Delgado A. 🟨,
39', Trejo Castro M. A. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Galvan P. ↓, Grijalva A. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Cruz D. ⚽, Garcia Pardo M. (A),
61', Gonzalez S. ↓, Coubert R. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Meza H. ⚽, Carrera J. N. (A),
70', Calzadilla L. ↓, Bermudez C. ↑,
70', Ibarra J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
70', Cruz D. ↓, Cantu E. ↑,
74', Guzman W. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
74', Calero J. ↓, Acosta C. ↑,
75', Vidrio N. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
75', Garcia Pardo M. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
79', Madrid W. ↓, Navarrete D. ↑,
84', 3 - 0, Carrera J. N. ⚽, Reyes F. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 2.

Atlante has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Venados is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlante is the team to beat.

We predict that Atlante will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlante won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:13. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlante won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
11.10.25	Dorados - Atlante	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Atlante - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWWW
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.10.25	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Correcaminos UAT - Venados	3:6 ✺
20.09.25	Venados - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:3 ✺
13.09.25	Cancún - Venados	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.02.25	Venados - Atlante	1:1
16.08.24	Atlante - Venados	1:0
27.02.24	Venados - Atlante	1:0
21.09.23	Atlante - Venados	2:0
08.03.23	Venados - Atlante	1:1
22.09.22	Atlante - Venados	1:0
21.04.22	Atlante - Venados	1:0

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