Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Dorados (Culiacán)

Referee: Gurrea D. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports, Disney+, ESPN
Usa	Aym Sports


	Dorados		Atlante

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.15	4.05	1.55	Watch
	5.28	4.12	1.6
	4.66	3.83	1.68	Watch
	5.21	4.1	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.08 ↑ (4.99)	4.03 ↑ (4.01)	1.6 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorados
18.4%

Draw
23.2%

Atlante
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.6%

23.1%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.4%

22.9%

58.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Dorados aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Dorados - Atlante Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlante (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Atlante (1.96) (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Users Predictions: Atlante will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlante (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vaal J. (G) 8. Cortes J. 5. Flores A. 15. Galicia C. 11. Garcia L. 17. Leyva C. 3. Manriquez S. 16. Martinez D. 24. Ramirez A. 4. Ruiz L. (C) 23. Vargas L.	29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 21. Ibarra J. (C) 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. 2. Reyes F. 9. Wlk A.
Substitutes
35. Acurio J. 7. Alvarez J. 13. Barrera G. (G) 10. Bonilla E. 12. Egana A. 33. Parra R. 9. Rengifo J. 6. Rochester L. 28. Suarez L. 2. Yanez S.	1. Barragan R. (G) 33. Basulto L. 18. Bermudez C. 15. Cantu E. 11. Coubert R. 7. Garcia M. 8. Gonzalez R. 19. Gonzalez S. 38. Tenorio J. 20. Tovar J.
Coaches
Ramirez F.	Fuentes M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Manriquez S. 🟨,
45', Wlk A. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
45+1', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Martinez D. ↓, Rengifo J. ↑,
58', Galicia C. 🟨,
70', Vargas L. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
70', Ramirez A. ↓, Yanez S. ↑,
70', Alvarez J. 🟨,
76', Ibarra J. 🟨,
77', Calzadilla L. ↓, Bermudez C. ↑,
77', Ibarra J. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
85', Meza H. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
85', Garcia Pardo M. ↓, Cantu E. ↑,
86', Leyva C. ↓, Rochester L. ↑,
86', Galicia C. ↓, Egana A. ↑,
90', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
90+4', Vaal J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 1.

Dorados has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Atlante is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Atlante is considered a favorite.

We predict that Atlante will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 20:43. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorados won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 1.4:2.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlante - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 58.29%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Dorados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	2:1 ✺
05.09.25	Dorados - Irapuato	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Atlante FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.10.25	Atlante - Tlaxcala	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlante	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Atlante - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlante	0:3 ✺
06.09.25	Atlante - Correcaminos UAT	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.25	Dorados - Atlante	1:4
10.11.24	Atlante - Dorados	3:0
07.11.24	Dorados - Atlante	3:1
13.09.24	Atlante - Dorados	4:0
28.03.24	Dorados - Atlante	0:3
31.08.23	Atlante - Dorados	3:0
15.03.23	Dorados - Atlante	0:0

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