Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Américo Montanini (Bucaramanga)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Atlético Bucaramanga		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.75	8.5	Watch
	1.35	4.45	9.3	Watch
	1.35	4.75	9.49
	1.51	3.81	6.95	Watch
	1.35	4.71	8.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.33)	4.49 ↓ (4.57)	8.53 ↓ (9.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Bucaramanga
68%

Draw
20.9%

Unión Magdalena
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

20.3%

9.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

19.7%

9.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Bucaramanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Bucaramanga will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Unión Magdalena will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 24. Duarte B. 2. Mena J. (C) 29. Henao C. 25. De Las Salas C. 6. Charrupi G. 20. Zarate A. 17. Gil Mosquera F. A. 10. Sambueza F. 7. Londono K. 27. Pons L.	1. Mattalia J. (G) 30. Mosquera D. 3. Ramos N. 15. Urrego Hector 26. Tello J. 28. Mercado J. 80. Hinojosa R. 4. Murillo D. 10. Sarmiento J. 21. Marquez R. (C) 8. Colpa Bolano R. R.
Substitutes
28. Flores L. 4. Garcia J. 19. Gutierrez A. 33. Medina G. 9. Moreno N. 14. Mosquera J. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G)	16. Congo J. 29. Contreras J. 20. Giraldo J. 9. Iguaran C. 23. Lastre E. 11. Martinez M. 6. Ortiz D. 5. Penaloza J. 12. Tasso M. (G)
Coaches
Alvarez L.	Silva C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Urrego Hector 🟨,
16', Colpa Bolano R. R. 🟨,
23', Ramos N. 🟨,
33', Duarte B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duarte B. ↓, Gutierrez A. ↑,
46', Zarate A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Gil Mosquera F. A. ⚽, Pons L. (A),
69', Tello J. ↓, Contreras J. ↑,
75', Gil Mosquera F. A. ↓, Moreno N. ↑,
75', Londono K. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
77', Sarmiento J. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
77', Colpa Bolano R. R. ↓, Congo J. ↑,
83', Mercado J. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
83', Hinojosa R. ↓, Lastre E. ↑,
87', Flores L. 🟨,
90', Sambueza F. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
90+5', De Las Salas C. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bucaramanga won 4.

Bucaramanga is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Unión Magdalena has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Bucaramanga has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bucaramanga is the clear favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bucaramanga won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 1.2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bucaramanga won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:1. (average 1.4:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
04.10.25	Envigado - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2 ✺
26.09.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	América de Cali - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Atlético Nacional - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WLWTW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
04.10.25	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Unión Magdalena	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Junior Barranquilla	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
20.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1
21.10.23	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
06.05.23	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	3:0
12.08.22	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	1:0
15.02.22	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1
24.10.19	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
02.05.19	Atlético Bucaramanga - Unión Magdalena	0:1

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