Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Referee: Delgado L. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Deportivo Pereira		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.46	3.95	7.4
	1.56	3.95	6.47
	12.94	3.82	1.37	Watch
	1.47	4.15	7.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.79 ↑ (1.74)	3.93 ↑ (3.3)	5.79 ↑ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pereira
38.2%

Draw
36.8%

Unión Magdalena
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

28.3%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

27.9%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Pereira's form might have worsened.

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Magdalena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pereira than the current prediction. (+16.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Pereira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Magdalena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ichazo S. (G) 27. Ararat J. 3. Moya J. 4. Juan Quintero 31. Velasco E. 14. Rios J. 33. Kelvin Osorio 11. Largacha J. 7. Quintero D. (C) 13. Quinones Y. 38. Merheg S. J.	1. Mattalia J. (G) 3. Ramos N. 15. Urrego Hector 18. Molina F. 27. Lerma J. 26. Tello J. 24. Cantillo F. (C) 28. Mercado J. 10. Sarmiento J. 9. Iguaran C. 21. Marquez R.
Substitutes
8. Acosta S. 15. Aguilar S. 80. Albornoz O. 10. Cabrera Y. 22. Estacio A. 6. Mejia V. 16. Moreno Gomez E. A. 44. Mosquera J. 17. Torres G.	16. Congo J. 29. Contreras J. 20. Giraldo J. 80. Hinojosa R. 23. Lastre E. 11. Martinez M. 30. Mosquera D. 5. Penaloza J. 12. Tasso M. (G)
Coaches
Dudamel R.	Silva C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Largacha J. ⚽, Quinones Y. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Urrego Hector ⚽,
41', Rios J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kelvin Osorio ↓, Cabrera Y. ↑,
48', Quinones Y. 🟨,
60', Quinones Y. ↓, Estacio A. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Cantillo F. ⚽,
68', Largacha J. ↓, Torres G. ↑,
68', Rios J. ↓, Mejia V. ↑,
77', Iguaran C. ↓, Congo J. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Merheg S. J. ⚽, Velasco E. (A),
82', Cabrera Y. 🟨,
85', Velasco E. ↓, Albornoz O. ↑,
86', Tello J. ↓, Mosquera D. ↑,
90', Lerma J. 🟨,
90+3', Lerma J. ↓, Penaloza J. ↑,
90+4', Sarmiento J. ↓, Hinojosa R. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 2.

Recent performances by Pereira have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Unión Magdalena is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Pereira is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Pereira won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pereira
Colombian Primera A
21.09.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pereira	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Deportivo Pereira - Llaneros SA	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira	1:0 ✺
Colombian Copa
02.09.25	Real Cundinamarca - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 penalties ✺
Colombian Primera A
30.08.25	Deportivo Pereira - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TTLWL
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
21.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Unión Magdalena	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Junior Barranquilla	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Boyacá Chicó - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Unión Magdalena - Alianza Valledupar	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
12.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:2
21.09.23	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	1:2
12.04.23	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	0:3
16.10.22	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	2:0
29.04.22	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:0
Colombian Primera B
15.11.18	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:3
21.10.18	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pereira	3:0

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