Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Sierra Nevada (Santa Marta)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Unión Magdalena		Rionegro Águilas

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.68	2.82	2.92
	2.77	2.95	2.97
	2.59	3.15	2.73	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.74	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.75)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	2.82 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Magdalena
35.7%

Draw
31.2%

Rionegro Águilas
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

30.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

29.8%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Magdalena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Rionegro Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Unión Magdalena (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Magdalena (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mattalia J. (G) 18. Molina F. 3. Ramos N. 15. Urrego Hector 30. Mosquera D. 28. Mercado J. 24. Cantillo F. (C) 27. Lerma J. 29. Contreras J. 21. Marquez R. 80. Hinojosa R.	1. Farinez W. (G) 29. Lopes H. 27. Mancilla H. 5. Hernandez D. 4. Puerta M. 37. Ramirez M. 22. Lozano F. (C) 30. Lara Vasquez N. 11. Yony Gonzalez 19. Morelo W. 23. Caballero J.
Substitutes
8. Colpa Bolano R. R. 20. Giraldo J. 9. Iguaran C. 23. Lastre E. 11. Martinez M. 4. Murillo D. 5. Penaloza J. 10. Sarmiento J. 12. Tasso M. (G)	15. Charales F. 34. Guerra Navarro S. (G) 26. Lozano D. 99. Obregon J. 80. Palacio B. 16. Pineda J. 2. Rodriguez S.
Coaches
Silva C.	Risueno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Ramirez M. ⚽, Morelo W. (A),
9', Molina F. 🟨,
12', 0 - 2, Morelo W. ⚽, Ramirez M. (A),
14', Mancilla H. 🟨,
21', Lerma J. 🟨,
35', Puerta M. 🟨,
36', 1 - 2, Molina F. ⚽, Mercado J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ramos N. ↓, Murillo D. ↑,
50', 2 - 2, Marquez R. (Pen),
54', Molina F. 🟨,
56', Mancilla H. ↓, Pineda J. ↑,
56', Ramirez M. ↓, Charales F. ↑,
56', Caballero J. ↓, Lozano D. ↑,
61', Contreras J. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
62', Lerma J. ↓, Penaloza J. ↑,
67', Hinojosa R. ↓, Lastre E. ↑,
68', Cantillo F. 🟥,
72', Lozano F. ↓, Obregon J. ↑,
72', Puerta M. ↓, Palacio B. ↑,
73', Lara Vasquez N. 🟨,
76', 3 - 2, Sarmiento J. ⚽,
85', Marquez R. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
90+16', Mercado J. 🟨,
90+18', Charales F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 2.

Recent form of Unión Magdalena has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rionegro Águilas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Unión Magdalena won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Magdalena won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
27.09.25	Deportivo Pereira - Unión Magdalena	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Unión Magdalena	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Unión Magdalena - Junior Barranquilla	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Boyacá Chicó - Unión Magdalena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLLWL
- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
28.09.25	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Cali	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Llaneros SA - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	Envigado - Rionegro Águilas	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Rionegro Águilas - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Rionegro Águilas	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
16.04.25	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	1:1
14.09.23	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	2:1
02.04.23	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	3:1
22.09.22	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	2:0
26.03.22	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
06.10.19	Unión Magdalena - Rionegro Águilas	1:1
13.04.19	Rionegro Águilas - Unión Magdalena	0:1

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