Match Info

Sergipano - Round 7

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday


	Atlético Gloriense		Lagarto

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.92	2.15
	2.92	2.78	2.49
	3.4	2.95	2.17	Watch
	2.9	2.75	2.5
	2.83	2.96	2.57
	2.9	2.8	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.96)	2.86 ↓ (3.28)	2.4 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Gloriense
30.1%

Draw
31.9%

Lagarto
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

27.8%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

27.1%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Gloriense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Gloriense's performance.

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lagarto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Gloriense than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Gloriense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lagarto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Atlético Gloriense - Lagarto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 1 - 0, Diogo ⚽,
80', 1 - 1, ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Gloriense won 1.

Atlético Gloriense is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lagarto is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lagarto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lagarto is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Atlético Gloriense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Gloriense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Gloriense
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
03.02.26	Falcon - Atlético Gloriense	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Guarany de Porto da Folha - Atlético Gloriense	3:2 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético Gloriense - Confiança	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	América de Propriá - Atlético Gloriense	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético Gloriense - Desportiva Aracaju	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LLWLT
- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
04.02.26	Lagarto - América de Propriá	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Lagarto - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Dorense - Lagarto	1:5 ✺
21.01.26	Lagarto - Guarany de Porto da Folha	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Confiança - Lagarto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
28.01.24	Lagarto - Atlético Gloriense	2:1
25.03.23	Lagarto - Atlético Gloriense	2:0
19.03.23	Atlético Gloriense - Lagarto	1:0
14.01.23	Atlético Gloriense - Lagarto	0:0
17.02.22	Lagarto - Atlético Gloriense	2:2
23.01.22	Atlético Gloriense - Lagarto	1:2
28.04.21	Lagarto - Atlético Gloriense	0:1

Atlético Gloriense - Lagarto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide