Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 21

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Antonio Accioly (Goiânia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Indonesia	Mola TV
Peru	L1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, MATCH! Futbol 3, Sportbox.ru
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Atlético Goianiense		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.55
	2.9	3.1	2.55
	3	3.18	2.6
	2.97	3.12	2.54	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.05
	3	3.2	2.47	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (3.27)	3.16 ↓ (3.38)	2.48 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Goianiense
31.5%

Draw
30.1%

Botafogo RJ
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

28%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

27.1%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Goianiense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Goianiense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Atlético GO will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Botafogo will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Rangel (G) 2. Maguinho 3. Adriano Martins 4. Luiz Felipe 6. Guilherme Romao 5. Freitas G. (C) 8. Baralhas 10. Shaylon 7. Campbell J. 9. Rodriguez E. 11. Luiz Fernando	12. John Victor (G) 4. Ponte M. 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 66. Cuiabano 5. Danilo Barbosa (C) 28. Allan 25. Kaue 7. Luiz Henrique 27. Carlos Alberto 99. da Cruz I.
Substitutes
18. Cruz A. 12. Emerson Junior (G) 17. Gustavo Campanharo 20. Janderson 19. Jan Hurtado 13. Luiz Gustavo 14. Marcao 16. Rhaldney 15. Rodallega Y.	26. Gregore 16. Hugo 3. Lucas Halter 21. Marcal 17. Marlon Freitas 37. Matheus Martins 8. Patrick de Paula 97. Raul (G) 70. Romero O. 44. Segovia L. 22. Suarez D. 6. Tche Tche
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Carlos Alberto ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Campbell J. (Pen),
44', da Cruz I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Kaue ↓, Romero O. ↑,
53', Guilherme Romao 🟨,
60', Danilo Barbosa ↓, Marlon Freitas ↑,
60', Adriano Martins 🟨,
65', Allan 🟨,
66', Allan ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
67', Shaylon ↓, Janderson ↑,
68', 1 - 2, da Cruz I. ⚽,
72', Carlos Alberto ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
72', Cuiabano ↓, Marcal ↑,
73', Rodriguez E. ↓, Jan Hurtado ↑,
73', Baralhas ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
79', Luiz Henrique 🟨,
81', 1 - 3, Romero O. (Pen),
88', 1 - 4, Luiz Henrique (Pen),
90+1', Campbell J. 🟨,
90+3', Janderson 🟥,
90+3', Tche Tche 🟥,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético GO won 1.

Atlético GO is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Botafogo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Botafogo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Botafogo have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Atlético GO: Bruno Tubarao (Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Jeffinho (Injury) Matheus Nascimento (Injury) Rafael (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Atlético GO won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético GO won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Goianiense
Copa do Brasil
31.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Flamengo - Atlético Goianiense	2:0 ✺
24.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Bahia	1:1 ✺
21.07.24	Fortaleza - Atlético Goianiense	3:1 ✺
17.07.24	Atlético Goianiense - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLL
- Botafogo RJ
Copa do Brasil
30.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
24.07.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
20.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
17.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
18.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Goianiense	1:0
13.08.22	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Goianiense	0:0
24.04.22	Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo RJ	1:1
20.01.21	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Goianiense	1:3
27.09.20	Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo RJ	1:1
16.11.17	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Goianiense	1:2
23.07.17	Atlético Goianiense - Botafogo RJ	1:1

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