Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 26

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones
Suriname	SCCN
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.85	3.45	4.15
	1.91	3.56	4.51
	1.92	3.36	4.07	Watch
	1.92	3.59	4.15	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.95)	3.44 ↑ (3.25)	4.19 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
49.8%

Draw
27.6%

Bahia
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

28.6%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

28%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	0%	11.8%

Botafogo RJ - Bahia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Botafogo RJ will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 2. Vitinho 31. Kaio 20. Barboza A. 6. Cuiabano 28. Newton 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 10. Savarino J. 23. Rodriguez S. 47. Jeffinho 98. Arthur Cabral	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 13. Arias S. 3. Gabriel Xavier 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 5. Rezende 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 37. Kayky 12. Willian Jose 23. Sanabria M.
Substitutes
25. Allan 7. Artur 37. Barria K. 58. Caua Zappelini 57. David Ricardo 26. Gabriel Bahia 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 4. Ponte M. 9. Ramos C. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 32. Rhyan (G)	7. Ademir 8. Cauly 1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 83. Fred Lippert 2. Gilberto 25. Iago Borduchi 44. Luiz Gustavo 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 55. Sidney Duarte 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Luciano Juba ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
27', 1 - 0, Rodriguez S. ⚽, Vitinho (A),
40', Arias S. 🟨,
45+4', Cuiabano 🟨,
45+4', Sanabria M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
46', Kayky ↓, Tiago ↑,
46', 2 - 0, Jeffinho ⚽, Cuiabano (A),
55', Ramos S. ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
55', 2 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
59', Sanabria M. 🟨,
61', Ancelotti D. 🟨,
65', Cuiabano ↓, David Ricardo ↑,
65', Willian Jose ↓, Ademir ↑,
70', Rodrigo 🟨,
72', Barboza A. 🟨,
76', Jeffinho ↓, Artur ↑,
76', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
80', Kaio ↓, Gabriel Bahia ↑,
80', Newton ↓, Allan ↑,
87', Allan 🟨,
90', David Ricardo 🟨,
90+4', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 0.

In recent matches, Botafogo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bahia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Botafogo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Barrera J. (International duty) Bastos (Knee Injury) Correa J. (Inactive) Danilo (Inactive) Matheus Martins (Yellow Cards) Montoro A. (International duty) Nathan Fernandes (Arm Injury) Neto (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) David Duarte (Inactive) Erick (Hamstring Injury) Erick Pulga (Hamstring Injury) Joao Paulo (Knee Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Nicolas Acevedo (Yellow Cards) Ruan Pablo (Inactive)

There are questionable in Botafogo: Alex Telles (Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Nicolas Acevedo (Injury) Sanabria M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:26. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 47.62%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
17.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:3 ✺
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWTL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Ceará - Bahia	1:1 ✺
15.09.25	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0
25.08.24	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	0:0
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0
30.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	1:2
27.08.23	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	3:0
24.04.23	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:2

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