Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 1

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Botafogo RJ		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.87
	2.52	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.63	3.06	3.05
	2.67	3.03	2.92	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.88
	2.6	3.05	3.04	Watch
	2.54	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)	3.04 ↓ (3.05)	2.96 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
37%

Draw
31.1%

Cruzeiro
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.6%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

30%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The chances for Cruzeiro have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Cruzeiro (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Botafogo (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 2 - 50%). Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Neto (G) 4. Ponte M. 28. Newton 20. Barboza A. 2. Vitinho 25. Allan 8. Danilo 13. Alex Telles (C) 23. Rodriguez S. 19. Arthur Cabral 10. Montoro A.	1. Cassio (G) 23. Fagner 15. Fabricio Bruno 34. Jonathan Jesus 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. 16. Lucas Silva (C) 10. Matheus Pereira 11. Gerson 94. Wanderson 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
39. Arthur Izaque 48. Arthur Novaes 7. Artur 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 15. Bastos 42. Kadu Santos 49. Kauan Toledo 24. Leo Linck (G) 21. Marcal 11. Matheus Martins 16. Nathan Fernandes	99. Arroyo K. 91. Chico 88. Christian 33. Janderson 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 8. Matheus Henrique 81. Otavio Costa (G) 22. Villarreal N. 12. William
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Lucas Silva 🟨,
45+4', Allan 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Danilo ⚽, Arthur Cabral (A),
56', Wanderson ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
63', Arthur Cabral ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
63', Allan ↓, Artur ↑,
63', Anselmi M. 🟨,
65', Lucas Silva ↓, Christian ↑,
76', 2 - 0, Matheus Martins ⚽, Montoro A. (A),
78', Gerson ↓, Kenji ↑,
78', Romero L. ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
78', Jonathan Jesus ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
81', Montoro A. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
81', Alex Telles ↓, Marcal ↑,
83', Kenji 🟨,
85', 3 - 0, Danilo ⚽, Nathan Fernandes (A),
88', Rodriguez S. ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 0, Artur ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 0.

Botafogo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Cruzeiro has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Botafogo: Correa J. (Inactive) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Villalba L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Cruzeiro: Sinisterra L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 1 match, drew 10 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:29. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 0.9:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.45%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Volta Redonda	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
15.01.26	Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
25.01.26	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
22.01.26	Cruzeiro - Democrata GV	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Cruzeiro - Uberlândia	5:0 ✺
14.01.26	Tombense - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Cruzeiro - Pouso Alegre	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.12.25	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	2:2
03.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:2
27.07.24	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:3
14.04.24	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	3:2
03.12.23	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:0
06.08.23	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.21	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	0:0

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