Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Carlos Miranda (Comayagua) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Honduras	20:30	Deportes TV


	Atlético Independiente		CD Marathón

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.40	1.70
	5.1	3.5	1.55
	5.16	3.54	1.54
	5.4	3.77	1.61	Watch
	5.05	3.45	1.5
	5.56	3.74	1.51	Watch
	5.2	3.65	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.1 ↑ (3.75)	3.58 ↑ (3.3)	1.57 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Independiente
17.6%

Draw
25.1%

CD Marathón
57.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.6%

26.8%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

26%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Independiente's form might have worsened.

CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting CD Marathón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Independiente than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Independiente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for CD Marathón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Independiente - CD Marathón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez M. (G) 15. Arias E. 21. Cabrera A. 17. Cruz S. 7. Enamorado N. 27. Espinoza S. 14. Fiallos J. 26. Luna E. 10. Melendez L. 16. Oscar Adonay C. S. 3. Ramirez W.	31. Juarez H. (G) 19. Aguilera J. 3. Bodden K. 20. Bueso J. 7. Castillo I. 77. Elis A. 47. Jefferson G. 12. Mejia Y. 43. Montoya L. 29. Perez C. 21. Ramos O.
Substitutes
9. Bodden A. 53. Bonilla C. 8. Escoto Pineda F. J. 28. Llorente D. 5. Lopez C. 29. Marmol E. 11. Martinez G. 23. Martinez I. 12. Perello M. (G) 20. Reyes E. 30. Vasquez C. 18. Yanez F.	16. Agurcia S. 14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 9. Farioli B. 13. Fernandez J. 56. Gaido C. 50. Hernandez J. 11. Messiniti N. 10. Ramirez D. 4. Rivera J. 1. Rougier J. (G) 8. Sorto Caballero T. A. 34. Vargas N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 1 - 0, Melendez L. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Aguilera J. ⚽,
41', 1 - 2, Ramos O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Bueso J. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
62', Perez C. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
62', Aguilera J. ↓, Arriaga Chavez J. A. ↑,
69', Elis A. ↓, Vargas N. ↑,
76', Montoya L. 🟨,
85', Espinoza S. ↓, Llorente D. ↑,
90+1', Arias E. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
90+8', Castillo I. 🟨,
90+8', Fiallos J. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Melendez L. ⚽,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 10th and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Marathón may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Marathón for this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Independiente has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marathon	11	6	4	1	18:9	9	22
10	Atletico Independiente	11	2	5	4	10:18	-8	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Independiente
Honduras Liga Nacional
17.10.26	Atlético Independiente - Lobos UPNFM	0:4 ✺
11.10.26	Olancho - Atlético Independiente	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Atlético Independiente	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Juticalpa	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Motagua	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTLWT
- CD Marathón
CONCACAF Central American Cup
20.10.26	CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel	2:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
15.10.26	CD Marathón - Olancho	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
20.09.26	Juticalpa - CD Marathón	3:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
17.09.26	Alajuelense - CD Marathón	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
03.08.26	CD Marathón - Atlético Independiente	1:0

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