Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Carlos Miranda (Comayagua) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Honduras	19:30	Deportes TV


	Atlético Independiente		Lobos UPNFM

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.10	2.30
	2.8	2.85	2.4
	3.01	2.82	2.28
	3.05	3.07	2.4	Watch
	2.95	2.75	2.2
	2.99	2.92	2.31
	2.85	2.95	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.4)	2.92 ↓ (3.2)	2.33 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Independiente
30.9%

Draw
30.7%

Lobos UPNFM
38.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27.4%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

27%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Independiente's form might have worsened.

Lobos UPNFM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Independiente than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Independiente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Atlético Independiente - Lobos UPNFM Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez M. (G)
15. Arias E.
21. Cabrera A.
17. Cruz S.
7. Enamorado N.
27. Espinoza S.
14. Fiallos J.
4. Herrera D.
26. Luna E.
10. Melendez L.
18. Yanez F.
Substitutes
. Bonilla C.
22. Cortes D.
8. Escoto Pineda F. J.
28. Llorente D.
29. Marmol E.
11. Martinez G.
16. Oscar Adonay C. S.
12. Perello M. (G)
20. Reyes E.
2. Suazo D.
30. Vasquez C.
. Zelaya C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
43', 0 - 1, Carter D. ⚽,
45+1', 0 - 2, Hinestroza Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Yanez F. ↓, Llorente D. ↑,
46', Fiallos J. ↓, Oscar Adonay C. S. ↑,
56', Juan M. 🟨,
56', Hinestroza Y. ↓, Hurtado L. ↑,
66', Suazo D. ↓, Zuniga A. ↑,
69', 🟨,
72', 0 - 3, Carter D. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Cruz S. ↓, Vasquez C. ↑,
76', Melendez L. ↓, Escoto Pineda F. J. ↑,
76', Enamorado N. ↓, Suazo D. ↑,
77', Carter D. ↓, Lagos D. ↑,
77', Juan M. ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
77', Elvir S. ↓, Glavocic J. ↑,
78', 0 - 4, Garcia J. ⚽,
83', Cabrera A. 🟨,
90+2', Glavocic J. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th and 9th).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	UPNFM	11	3	3	5	11:13	-2	12
10	Atletico Independiente	11	2	5	4	10:18	-8	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Independiente
Honduras Liga Nacional
11.10.26	Olancho - Atlético Independiente	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Atlético Independiente	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Juticalpa	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Independiente - Motagua	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Platense - Atlético Independiente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLWTL
- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
10.10.26	Lobos UPNFM - CD Marathón	0:0 ✺
18.09.26	Platense - Lobos UPNFM	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Juticalpa - Lobos UPNFM	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWWLL

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